Onemain Holdings Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

OMF
 Stock
  

USD 38.57  0.78  2.06%   

Onemain Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Onemain Holdings historical stock prices and determine the direction of Onemain Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Onemain Holdings historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Onemain Holdings naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Onemain Holdings systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Onemain Holdings fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Onemain Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 38.99, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 33.50. . As of November 29, 2022, Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 120.2 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to decline to about 120.5 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Onemain Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Onemain Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Onemain Holdings' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Onemain Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Onemain Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Onemain Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Onemain Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Onemain. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Onemain Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Onemain Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Onemain Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Onemain Holdings - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Onemain Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Onemain Holdings price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Onemain Holdings.

Onemain Holdings Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Onemain Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 38.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Onemain Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Onemain Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Onemain Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

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Onemain Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Onemain Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Onemain Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.22 and 42.48, respectively. We have considered Onemain Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 38.57
38.85
Expected Value
42.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Onemain Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Onemain Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.203
MADMean absolute deviation0.9543
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.028
SAESum of the absolute errors57.26
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Onemain Holdings observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Onemain Holdings observations.

Predictive Modules for Onemain Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Onemain Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Onemain Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Onemain Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
34.3137.8941.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.0144.2247.80
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
60.0071.7387.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
10.6010.7410.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Onemain Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Onemain Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Onemain Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Onemain Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Onemain Holdings

For every potential investor in Onemain, whether a beginner or expert, Onemain Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Onemain Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Onemain. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Onemain Holdings' price trends.

Onemain Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Onemain Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Onemain Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Onemain Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Agnc Investment CorpAffiliated ManagersAmeriprise FinancialAmtd Idea GroupApollo Asset ManagementCredicorpFranklin ResourcesBgc Partners ClAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth Trd
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Onemain Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Onemain Holdings' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Onemain Holdings' current price.

Onemain Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Onemain Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Onemain Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Onemain Holdings stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Onemain Holdings without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Onemain Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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Is Onemain Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Onemain Holdings. If investors know Onemain will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Onemain Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.30) 
Market Capitalization
4.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.20) 
Return On Assets
0.0434
Return On Equity
0.31
The market value of Onemain Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Onemain that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Onemain Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Onemain Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Onemain Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Onemain Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Onemain Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Onemain Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Onemain Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.