Jpmorgan Large Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

OLVAX
 Fund
  

USD 19.60  0.30  1.51%   

Jpmorgan Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jpmorgan Large historical stock prices and determine the direction of Jpmorgan Large Cap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Jpmorgan Large historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jpmorgan Large to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Jpmorgan Large cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jpmorgan Large's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jpmorgan Large's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Jpmorgan Large is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Jpmorgan Large Cap value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Jpmorgan Large Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jpmorgan Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 20.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jpmorgan Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jpmorgan Large's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jpmorgan Large Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Jpmorgan Large Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jpmorgan Large's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jpmorgan Large's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.59 and 21.44, respectively. We have considered Jpmorgan Large's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 19.60
20.02
Expected Value
21.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jpmorgan Large mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jpmorgan Large mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.477
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2094
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0114
SAESum of the absolute errors12.7728
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Jpmorgan Large Cap. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Jpmorgan Large. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Jpmorgan Large

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jpmorgan Large Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jpmorgan Large's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Jpmorgan Large in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
18.1619.5921.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
17.8819.3120.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.7619.3319.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jpmorgan Large. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jpmorgan Large's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jpmorgan Large's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Jpmorgan Large Cap.

Other Forecasting Options for Jpmorgan Large

For every potential investor in Jpmorgan, whether a beginner or expert, Jpmorgan Large's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jpmorgan Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jpmorgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jpmorgan Large's price trends.

Jpmorgan Large Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jpmorgan Large mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jpmorgan Large could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jpmorgan Large by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American MutualAmerican MutualAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jpmorgan Large Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jpmorgan Large's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jpmorgan Large's current price.

Jpmorgan Large Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jpmorgan Large's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jpmorgan Large's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Jpmorgan Large stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Jpmorgan Large without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jpmorgan Large to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Jpmorgan Large Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jpmorgan Large's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

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When running Jpmorgan Large Cap price analysis, check to measure Jpmorgan Large's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jpmorgan Large is operating at the current time. Most of Jpmorgan Large's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jpmorgan Large's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jpmorgan Large's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jpmorgan Large to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Jpmorgan Large's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Jpmorgan Large value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jpmorgan Large's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.