OceanFirst Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

OCFC
 Stock
  

USD 19.52  0.24  1.21%   

OceanFirst Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast OceanFirst Financial historical stock prices and determine the direction of OceanFirst Financial Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of OceanFirst Financial historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of OceanFirst Financial to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 OceanFirst Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast OceanFirst Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest OceanFirst Financial's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies OceanFirst Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current OceanFirst Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to OceanFirst Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of OceanFirst Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in OceanFirst. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in OceanFirst Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the OceanFirst Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets OceanFirst Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for OceanFirst Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of OceanFirst Financial Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

OceanFirst Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of OceanFirst Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OceanFirst Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OceanFirst Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OceanFirst Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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OceanFirst Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OceanFirst Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OceanFirst Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.55 and 21.39, respectively. We have considered OceanFirst Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 19.52
19.97
Expected Value
21.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OceanFirst Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OceanFirst Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0621
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2982
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0149
SAESum of the absolute errors18.1881
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of OceanFirst Financial Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict OceanFirst Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for OceanFirst Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OceanFirst Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of OceanFirst Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of OceanFirst Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
18.0919.5120.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
17.5723.0924.51
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
24.5026.4431.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OceanFirst Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OceanFirst Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OceanFirst Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in OceanFirst Financial Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for OceanFirst Financial

For every potential investor in OceanFirst, whether a beginner or expert, OceanFirst Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OceanFirst Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OceanFirst. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OceanFirst Financial's price trends.

OceanFirst Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OceanFirst Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OceanFirst Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OceanFirst Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sigma Lithium CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OceanFirst Financial Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OceanFirst Financial's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OceanFirst Financial's current price.

OceanFirst Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OceanFirst Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OceanFirst Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OceanFirst Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OceanFirst Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OceanFirst Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of OceanFirst Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OceanFirst Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting OceanFirst Financial stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards OceanFirst Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, OceanFirst Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from OceanFirst Financial options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of OceanFirst Financial to cross-verify your projections. Note that the OceanFirst Financial Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other OceanFirst Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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When running OceanFirst Financial Corp price analysis, check to measure OceanFirst Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OceanFirst Financial is operating at the current time. Most of OceanFirst Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OceanFirst Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OceanFirst Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OceanFirst Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is OceanFirst Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OceanFirst Financial. If investors know OceanFirst will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OceanFirst Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of OceanFirst Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OceanFirst that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OceanFirst Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OceanFirst Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OceanFirst Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OceanFirst Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OceanFirst Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine OceanFirst Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OceanFirst Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.