OBSHX SHIPPING Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

OBSHX
  

 206.36  3.88  1.92%   

OBSHX Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast OBSHX SHIPPING historical stock prices and determine the direction of OBSHX SHIPPING GR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of OBSHX SHIPPING historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Your Equity Center.
Most investors in OBSHX SHIPPING cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the OBSHX SHIPPING's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets OBSHX SHIPPING's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for OBSHX SHIPPING is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of OBSHX SHIPPING GR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

OBSHX SHIPPING Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of OBSHX SHIPPING GR on the next trading day is expected to be 206.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.83, mean absolute percentage error of 42.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 260.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OBSHX Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OBSHX SHIPPING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OBSHX SHIPPING Index Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OBSHX SHIPPING index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OBSHX SHIPPING index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.0017
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4.8278
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0283
SAESum of the absolute errors260.7015
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of OBSHX SHIPPING GR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict OBSHX SHIPPING. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for OBSHX SHIPPING

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OBSHX SHIPPING GR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of OBSHX SHIPPING's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of OBSHX SHIPPING in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
204.03206.36208.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
181.23183.56227.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
176.58192.54208.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OBSHX SHIPPING. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OBSHX SHIPPING's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OBSHX SHIPPING's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in OBSHX SHIPPING GR.

OBSHX SHIPPING Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OBSHX SHIPPING index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OBSHX SHIPPING could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OBSHX SHIPPING by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpPowered Brands Cl
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OBSHX SHIPPING Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OBSHX SHIPPING index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OBSHX SHIPPING shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OBSHX SHIPPING index market strength indicators, traders can identify OBSHX SHIPPING GR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OBSHX SHIPPING Risk Indicators

The analysis of OBSHX SHIPPING's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OBSHX SHIPPING's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting OBSHX SHIPPING stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards OBSHX SHIPPING in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, OBSHX SHIPPING's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from OBSHX SHIPPING options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as OBSHX SHIPPING GR using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Your Equity Center. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Other Tools for OBSHX Index

When running OBSHX SHIPPING GR price analysis, check to measure OBSHX SHIPPING's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OBSHX SHIPPING is operating at the current time. Most of OBSHX SHIPPING's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OBSHX SHIPPING's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OBSHX SHIPPING's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OBSHX SHIPPING to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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