OBSHX SHIPPING Index Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

OBSHP
  

 103.88  0.17  0.16%   

Investors can use prediction functions to forecast OBSHX SHIPPING historical stock prices and determine the direction of OBSHX SHIPPING PR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of OBSHX SHIPPING historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Your Equity Center.
Most investors in OBSHX SHIPPING cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the OBSHX SHIPPING's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets OBSHX SHIPPING's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
OBSHX SHIPPING simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for OBSHX SHIPPING PR are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as OBSHX SHIPPING PR prices get older.

OBSHX SHIPPING Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OBSHX SHIPPING PR on the next trading day is expected to be 103.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.62, mean absolute percentage error of 25.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OBSHX Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OBSHX SHIPPING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OBSHX SHIPPING Index Forecast Pattern

OBSHX SHIPPING Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OBSHX SHIPPING's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OBSHX SHIPPING's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 101.36 and 106.40, respectively. We have considered OBSHX SHIPPING's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 103.88
101.36
Downside
103.88
Expected Value
106.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OBSHX SHIPPING index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OBSHX SHIPPING index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria55.2009
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.8632
MADMean absolute deviation3.624
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0349
SAESum of the absolute errors90.6
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting OBSHX SHIPPING PR forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent OBSHX SHIPPING observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for OBSHX SHIPPING

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OBSHX SHIPPING PR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of OBSHX SHIPPING's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of OBSHX SHIPPING in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OBSHX SHIPPING. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OBSHX SHIPPING's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OBSHX SHIPPING's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in OBSHX SHIPPING PR.

Other Forecasting Options for OBSHX SHIPPING

For every potential investor in OBSHX, whether a beginner or expert, OBSHX SHIPPING's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OBSHX Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OBSHX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OBSHX SHIPPING's price trends.

OBSHX SHIPPING Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OBSHX SHIPPING index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OBSHX SHIPPING could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OBSHX SHIPPING by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpPowered Brands Cl
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OBSHX SHIPPING PR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OBSHX SHIPPING's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OBSHX SHIPPING's current price.

OBSHX SHIPPING Risk Indicators

The analysis of OBSHX SHIPPING's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OBSHX SHIPPING's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting OBSHX SHIPPING stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards OBSHX SHIPPING in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, OBSHX SHIPPING's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from OBSHX SHIPPING options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as OBSHX SHIPPING PR using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Other Tools for OBSHX Index

When running OBSHX SHIPPING PR price analysis, check to measure OBSHX SHIPPING's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OBSHX SHIPPING is operating at the current time. Most of OBSHX SHIPPING's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OBSHX SHIPPING's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OBSHX SHIPPING's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OBSHX SHIPPING to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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