Oakmark Fund Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

OAZMX
 Fund
  

USD 108.44  0.11  0.10%   

Oakmark Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Oakmark Fund historical stock prices and determine the direction of Oakmark Fund R6's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Oakmark Fund historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oakmark Fund to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Oakmark Fund cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Oakmark Fund's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Oakmark Fund's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Oakmark Fund is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Oakmark Fund R6 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Oakmark Fund Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oakmark Fund R6 on the next trading day is expected to be 110.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66, mean absolute percentage error of 4.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oakmark Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oakmark Fund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oakmark Fund Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Oakmark Fund Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oakmark Fund's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oakmark Fund's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 108.97 and 112.60, respectively. We have considered Oakmark Fund's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 108.44
108.97
Downside
110.79
Expected Value
112.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oakmark Fund mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oakmark Fund mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6155
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.6649
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0164
SAESum of the absolute errors101.5568
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Oakmark Fund R6. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Oakmark Fund. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Oakmark Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oakmark Fund R6. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oakmark Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Oakmark Fund in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
106.63108.44110.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
102.83104.64119.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
99.89104.97110.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Oakmark Fund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Oakmark Fund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Oakmark Fund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Oakmark Fund R6.

Other Forecasting Options for Oakmark Fund

For every potential investor in Oakmark, whether a beginner or expert, Oakmark Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oakmark Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oakmark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oakmark Fund's price trends.

Oakmark Fund Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oakmark Fund mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oakmark Fund could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oakmark Fund by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American MutualAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oakmark Fund R6 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Oakmark Fund's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Oakmark Fund's current price.

Oakmark Fund Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oakmark Fund mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oakmark Fund shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oakmark Fund mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Oakmark Fund R6 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oakmark Fund Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oakmark Fund's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oakmark Fund's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Oakmark Fund stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Oakmark Fund without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oakmark Fund to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Oakmark Fund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Oakmark Fund value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oakmark Fund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.