Oakmark International Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

OAZEX
 Fund
  

USD 16.74  0.21  1.27%   

Oakmark Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Oakmark International historical stock prices and determine the direction of Oakmark International Small's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Oakmark International historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oakmark International to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Oakmark International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Oakmark International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Oakmark International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Oakmark International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Oakmark International Small value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Oakmark International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oakmark International Small on the next trading day is expected to be 16.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oakmark Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oakmark International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oakmark International Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Oakmark International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oakmark International's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oakmark International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.89 and 18.79, respectively. We have considered Oakmark International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 16.74
16.84
Expected Value
18.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oakmark International mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oakmark International mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8222
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2428
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0167
SAESum of the absolute errors14.8085
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Oakmark International Small. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Oakmark International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Oakmark International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oakmark International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oakmark International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Oakmark International in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
14.7916.7418.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
16.3018.2520.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15.9216.2516.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Oakmark International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Oakmark International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Oakmark International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Oakmark International.

Other Forecasting Options for Oakmark International

For every potential investor in Oakmark, whether a beginner or expert, Oakmark International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oakmark Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oakmark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oakmark International's price trends.

Oakmark International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oakmark International mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oakmark International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oakmark International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Kopernik Global All-CapKopernik Global All-CapOakmark InternationalOakmark InternationalOakmark InternationalTiaa-Cref Quant InteGabelli DividendAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value Factor
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oakmark International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Oakmark International's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Oakmark International's current price.

Oakmark International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oakmark International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oakmark International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Oakmark International stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Oakmark International in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Oakmark International's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Oakmark International options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Oakmark International using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oakmark International to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Oakmark International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Oakmark International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Oakmark International price analysis, check to measure Oakmark International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oakmark International is operating at the current time. Most of Oakmark International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oakmark International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oakmark International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oakmark International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Oakmark International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Oakmark International value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oakmark International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.