OAKMARK FUND Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

OAYMX
 Fund
  

USD 106.59  2.81  2.57%   

OAKMARK Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast OAKMARK FUND historical stock prices and determine the direction of OAKMARK FUND ADVISOR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of OAKMARK FUND historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of OAKMARK FUND to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in OAKMARK FUND cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the OAKMARK FUND's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets OAKMARK FUND's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for OAKMARK FUND works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

OAKMARK FUND Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OAKMARK FUND ADVISOR on the next trading day is expected to be 106.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65, mean absolute percentage error of 4.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OAKMARK Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OAKMARK FUND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OAKMARK FUND Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest OAKMARK FUNDOAKMARK FUND Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

OAKMARK FUND Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OAKMARK FUND's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OAKMARK FUND's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 104.30 and 108.04, respectively. We have considered OAKMARK FUND's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 106.59
104.30
Downside
106.17
Expected Value
108.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OAKMARK FUND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OAKMARK FUND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3086
MADMean absolute deviation1.6497
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors97.3317
When OAKMARK FUND ADVISOR prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any OAKMARK FUND ADVISOR trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent OAKMARK FUND observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for OAKMARK FUND

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OAKMARK FUND ADVISOR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of OAKMARK FUND's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of OAKMARK FUND in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.001.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.001.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
97.88104.79111.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OAKMARK FUND. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OAKMARK FUND's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OAKMARK FUND's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in OAKMARK FUND ADVISOR.

Other Forecasting Options for OAKMARK FUND

For every potential investor in OAKMARK, whether a beginner or expert, OAKMARK FUND's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OAKMARK Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OAKMARK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OAKMARK FUND's price trends.

OAKMARK FUND Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OAKMARK FUND mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OAKMARK FUND could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OAKMARK FUND by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
PENN CAPITAL SENIORCalvert Floating-RateRiverPark Floating RateDEUTSCHE FLOATING RATECalvert Floating-RateCalvert Floating-RateVanEck ETF TrustAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USA
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OAKMARK FUND ADVISOR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OAKMARK FUND's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OAKMARK FUND's current price.

OAKMARK FUND Risk Indicators

The analysis of OAKMARK FUND's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OAKMARK FUND's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting OAKMARK FUND stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in OAKMARK FUND without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of OAKMARK FUND to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running OAKMARK FUND ADVISOR price analysis, check to measure OAKMARK FUND's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OAKMARK FUND is operating at the current time. Most of OAKMARK FUND's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OAKMARK FUND's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OAKMARK FUND's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OAKMARK FUND to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between OAKMARK FUND's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine OAKMARK FUND value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OAKMARK FUND's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.