Optimum Fixed Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

OAFIX
 Fund
  

USD 8.20  0.03  0.36%   

Optimum Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Optimum Fixed historical stock prices and determine the direction of Optimum Fixed Income's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Optimum Fixed historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Optimum Fixed to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Optimum Fixed cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Optimum Fixed's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Optimum Fixed's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Optimum Fixed Income is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Optimum Fixed 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Optimum Fixed Income on the next trading day is expected to be 8.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03864, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00236, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Optimum Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Optimum Fixed's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Optimum Fixed Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Optimum FixedOptimum Fixed Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Optimum Fixed Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Optimum Fixed's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Optimum Fixed's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.81 and 8.67, respectively. We have considered Optimum Fixed's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 8.20
8.24
Expected Value
8.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Optimum Fixed mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Optimum Fixed mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria104.71
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0132
MADMean absolute deviation0.0386
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0045
SAESum of the absolute errors2.2025
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Optimum Fixed. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Optimum Fixed Income and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Optimum Fixed

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Optimum Fixed Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Optimum Fixed's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Optimum Fixed in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.778.208.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.848.278.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Optimum Fixed. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Optimum Fixed's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Optimum Fixed's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Optimum Fixed Income.

Other Forecasting Options for Optimum Fixed

For every potential investor in Optimum, whether a beginner or expert, Optimum Fixed's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Optimum Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Optimum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Optimum Fixed's price trends.

Optimum Fixed Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Optimum Fixed mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Optimum Fixed could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Optimum Fixed by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Chevron CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Optimum Fixed Income Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Optimum Fixed's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Optimum Fixed's current price.

Optimum Fixed Risk Indicators

The analysis of Optimum Fixed's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Optimum Fixed's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Optimum Fixed stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Optimum Fixed without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Optimum Fixed Income using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Optimum Fixed to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Probability Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

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When running Optimum Fixed Income price analysis, check to measure Optimum Fixed's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Optimum Fixed is operating at the current time. Most of Optimum Fixed's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Optimum Fixed's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Optimum Fixed's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Optimum Fixed to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Optimum Fixed's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Optimum Fixed value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Optimum Fixed's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.