NXP Semiconductors Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

NXPI
 Stock
  

USD 171.06  2.38  1.37%   

NXP Semiconductors Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NXP Semiconductors historical stock prices and determine the direction of NXP Semiconductors NV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of NXP Semiconductors historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although NXP Semiconductors naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of NXP Semiconductors NV systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NXP Semiconductors fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of NXP Semiconductors to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.43. The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to increase to about 329.2 M. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 334.5 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 NXP Semiconductors Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NXP Semiconductors' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest NXP Semiconductors' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies NXP Semiconductors stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NXP Semiconductors' open interest, investors have to compare it to NXP Semiconductors' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NXP Semiconductors is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NXP Semiconductors. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in NXP Semiconductors cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the NXP Semiconductors' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets NXP Semiconductors' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for NXP Semiconductors works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

NXP Semiconductors Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NXP Semiconductors NV on the next trading day is expected to be 171.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.50, mean absolute percentage error of 33.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 265.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NXP Semiconductors Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NXP Semiconductors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

NXP Semiconductors Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest NXP SemiconductorsNXP Semiconductors Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

NXP Semiconductors Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting NXP Semiconductors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NXP Semiconductors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 168.06 and 174.03, respectively. We have considered NXP Semiconductors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 171.06
168.06
Downside
171.04
Expected Value
174.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NXP Semiconductors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NXP Semiconductors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.8679
MADMean absolute deviation4.4969
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0286
SAESum of the absolute errors265.3193
When NXP Semiconductors NV prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any NXP Semiconductors NV trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent NXP Semiconductors observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for NXP Semiconductors

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NXP Semiconductors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of NXP Semiconductors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of NXP Semiconductors in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
167.70170.69173.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
153.95175.28178.27
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
140.00199.75225.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (10)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.624.714.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as NXP Semiconductors. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against NXP Semiconductors' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, NXP Semiconductors' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in NXP Semiconductors.

Other Forecasting Options for NXP Semiconductors

For every potential investor in NXP Semiconductors, whether a beginner or expert, NXP Semiconductors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NXP Semiconductors Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NXP Semiconductors. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NXP Semiconductors' price trends.

NXP Semiconductors Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NXP Semiconductors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NXP Semiconductors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NXP Semiconductors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amtech SystemsAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

NXP Semiconductors Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NXP Semiconductors' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NXP Semiconductors' current price.

NXP Semiconductors Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NXP Semiconductors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NXP Semiconductors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NXP Semiconductors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NXP Semiconductors NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

NXP Semiconductors Risk Indicators

The analysis of NXP Semiconductors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NXP Semiconductors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting NXP Semiconductors stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

NXP Semiconductors Investors Sentiment

The influence of NXP Semiconductors' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in NXP Semiconductors. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to NXP Semiconductors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in NXP Semiconductors. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NXP Semiconductors can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NXP Semiconductors NV. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
NXP Semiconductors' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for NXP Semiconductors' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average NXP Semiconductors' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on NXP Semiconductors.

NXP Semiconductors Implied Volatility

    
  32.99  
NXP Semiconductors' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NXP Semiconductors NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NXP Semiconductors' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NXP Semiconductors stock will not fluctuate a lot when NXP Semiconductors' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NXP Semiconductors in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NXP Semiconductors' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NXP Semiconductors options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as NXP Semiconductors using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of NXP Semiconductors to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running NXP Semiconductors price analysis, check to measure NXP Semiconductors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NXP Semiconductors is operating at the current time. Most of NXP Semiconductors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NXP Semiconductors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NXP Semiconductors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NXP Semiconductors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NXP Semiconductors' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NXP Semiconductors. If investors know NXP Semiconductors will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NXP Semiconductors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.46
Market Capitalization
44.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.2
Return On Assets
0.11
Return On Equity
0.38
The market value of NXP Semiconductors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NXP Semiconductors that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NXP Semiconductors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NXP Semiconductors' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NXP Semiconductors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NXP Semiconductors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NXP Semiconductors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine NXP Semiconductors value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NXP Semiconductors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.