Newell Brands Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NWL
 Stock
  

USD 13.89  0.08  0.57%   

Newell Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Newell Brands historical stock prices and determine the direction of Newell Brands's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Newell Brands historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Newell Brands to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Newell Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Newell Brands' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Newell Brands' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Newell Brands stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Newell Brands' open interest, investors have to compare it to Newell Brands' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Newell Brands is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Newell. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Newell Brands cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Newell Brands' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Newell Brands' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Newell Brands - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Newell Brands prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Newell Brands price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Newell Brands.

Newell Brands Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Newell Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 13.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Newell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Newell Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Newell Brands Stock Forecast Pattern

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Newell Brands Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Newell Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Newell Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.68 and 15.71, respectively. We have considered Newell Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 13.89
13.69
Expected Value
15.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Newell Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Newell Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0228
MADMean absolute deviation0.3233
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0175
SAESum of the absolute errors19.0753
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Newell Brands observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Newell Brands observations.

Predictive Modules for Newell Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Newell Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Newell Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Newell Brands in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.6413.6515.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.5018.3720.38
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
25.0030.0035.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Newell Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Newell Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Newell Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Newell Brands.

Other Forecasting Options for Newell Brands

For every potential investor in Newell, whether a beginner or expert, Newell Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Newell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Newell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Newell Brands' price trends.

Newell Brands Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Newell Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Newell Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Newell Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Newell Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Newell Brands' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Newell Brands' current price.

Newell Brands Risk Indicators

The analysis of Newell Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Newell Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Newell Brands stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Newell Brands without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Newell Brands to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Stock Screener module to find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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Is Newell Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Newell Brands. If investors know Newell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Newell Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Newell Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Newell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Newell Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Newell Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Newell Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Newell Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Newell Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Newell Brands value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Newell Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.