Northwest Bancshares Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

NWBI
 Stock
  

USD 12.88  0.38  3.04%   

Northwest Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Northwest Bancshares historical stock prices and determine the direction of Northwest Bancshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Northwest Bancshares historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Northwest Bancshares naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Northwest Bancshares systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Northwest Bancshares fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northwest Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Northwest Bancshares Asset Turnover is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Asset Turnover was reported at 0.039664. The current Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is estimated to increase to about 12.1 M, while Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 109.7 M.
Most investors in Northwest Bancshares cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Northwest Bancshares' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Northwest Bancshares' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Northwest Bancshares polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Northwest Bancshares as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Northwest Bancshares Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Northwest Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Northwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northwest Bancshares. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Northwest Bancshares' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Northwest Bancshares' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Northwest Bancshares' news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Northwest Bancshares.

Northwest Bancshares Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Northwest Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 12.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.047289, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.89. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northwest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northwest Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Northwest Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Northwest BancsharesNorthwest Bancshares Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Northwest Bancshares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Northwest Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northwest Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.35 and 13.81, respectively. We have considered Northwest Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 12.88
12.58
Expected Value
13.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northwest Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northwest Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.059
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1785
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0141
SAESum of the absolute errors10.8911
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Northwest Bancshares historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Northwest Bancshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northwest Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northwest Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northwest Bancshares in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.6212.8614.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.9713.2114.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
12.1512.6013.04
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
12.0013.6014.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northwest Bancshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northwest Bancshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northwest Bancshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northwest Bancshares.

Other Forecasting Options for Northwest Bancshares

For every potential investor in Northwest, whether a beginner or expert, Northwest Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northwest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northwest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northwest Bancshares' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northwest Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northwest Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northwest Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Northwest Bancshares Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Northwest Bancshares' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Northwest Bancshares' current price.

Northwest Bancshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northwest Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northwest Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northwest Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northwest Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Northwest Bancshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of Northwest Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northwest Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Northwest Bancshares stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Northwest Bancshares without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Northwest Bancshares using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northwest Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Northwest Bancshares information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Northwest Bancshares' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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When running Northwest Bancshares price analysis, check to measure Northwest Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northwest Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Northwest Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northwest Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northwest Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northwest Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northwest Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northwest Bancshares. If investors know Northwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northwest Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.31
Market Capitalization
1.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.15
Return On Assets
0.0099
Return On Equity
0.0929
The market value of Northwest Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northwest Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northwest Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northwest Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northwest Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northwest Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northwest Bancshares value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northwest Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.