Nu Skin Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

NUS
 Stock
  

USD 44.31  0.96  2.21%   

Nu Skin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nu Skin historical stock prices and determine the direction of Nu Skin Enterprises's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Nu Skin historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Nu Skin naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Nu Skin Enterprises systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Nu Skin fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nu Skin to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of 08/08/2022, PPandE Turnover is likely to grow to 7.49. Also, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 61.01. Nu Skin Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Nu Skin reported last year Weighted Average Shares of 50.19 Million. As of 08/08/2022, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 60.9 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (171.9 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Nu Skin Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Nu Skin's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Nu Skin's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Nu Skin stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Nu Skin's open interest, investors have to compare it to Nu Skin's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Nu Skin is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Nu Skin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Nu Skin cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nu Skin's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nu Skin's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Nu Skin simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Nu Skin Enterprises are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Nu Skin Enterprises prices get older.

Nu Skin Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nu Skin Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 44.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nu Skin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nu Skin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nu Skin Stock Forecast Pattern

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Nu Skin Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nu Skin's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nu Skin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.21 and 46.41, respectively. We have considered Nu Skin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 44.31
44.31
Expected Value
46.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nu Skin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nu Skin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9996
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0055
MADMean absolute deviation0.7112
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors42.67
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Nu Skin Enterprises forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Nu Skin observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Nu Skin

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nu Skin Enterprises. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nu Skin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nu Skin in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
42.1844.2846.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
39.8848.2050.30
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
47.0052.0061.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.953.984.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nu Skin. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nu Skin's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nu Skin's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nu Skin Enterprises.

Other Forecasting Options for Nu Skin

For every potential investor in Nu Skin, whether a beginner or expert, Nu Skin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nu Skin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nu Skin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nu Skin's price trends.

Nu Skin Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nu Skin stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nu Skin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nu Skin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Norwegian Cruise OrdNetflixNike IncNewell BrandsPenn Natl GamingPepsicoProcter GamblePhilip Morris InternPhillips-Van Heusen CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nu Skin Enterprises Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nu Skin's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nu Skin's current price.

Nu Skin Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nu Skin stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nu Skin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nu Skin stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nu Skin Enterprises entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nu Skin Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nu Skin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nu Skin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Nu Skin stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Nu Skin without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nu Skin to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Nu Skin Enterprises information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nu Skin's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for Nu Skin Stock analysis

When running Nu Skin Enterprises price analysis, check to measure Nu Skin's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nu Skin is operating at the current time. Most of Nu Skin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nu Skin's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nu Skin's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nu Skin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Nu Skin's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nu Skin. If investors know Nu Skin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nu Skin listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.42
Market Capitalization
2.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.2
Return On Assets
0.0784
Return On Equity
0.12
The market value of Nu Skin Enterprises is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nu Skin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nu Skin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nu Skin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nu Skin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nu Skin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nu Skin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nu Skin value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nu Skin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.