Nike Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NKE
 Stock
  

USD 116.11  2.97  2.63%   

Nike Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nike historical stock prices and determine the direction of Nike Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Nike historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Nike naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Nike Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Nike fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nike to cross-verify your projections.
  
Nike Inventory Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Inventory Turnover was at 3.30. The current year Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to grow to 9.88, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 9.27. . The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 1.8 B. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 1.9 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-12 Nike Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Nike's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Nike's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Nike stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Nike's open interest, investors have to compare it to Nike's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Nike is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Nike. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Nike cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nike's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nike's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Nike - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Nike prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Nike price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Nike Inc.

Nike Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nike Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 116.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.55, mean absolute percentage error of 10.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 150.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nike Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nike's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nike Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest NikeNike Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Nike Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nike's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nike's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 113.68 and 118.98, respectively. We have considered Nike's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 116.11
113.68
Downside
116.33
Expected Value
118.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nike stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nike stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.3904
MADMean absolute deviation2.5487
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0231
SAESum of the absolute errors150.3752
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Nike observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Nike Inc observations.

Predictive Modules for Nike

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nike Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nike's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nike in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
110.90113.60116.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
101.83130.92133.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
101.83109.59117.35
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
140.00184.65202.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nike. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nike's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nike's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nike Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Nike

For every potential investor in Nike, whether a beginner or expert, Nike's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nike Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nike. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nike's price trends.

Nike Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nike stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nike could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nike by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Under ArmourNorwegian Cruise OrdNetflixNu Skin EnterprisesNewell BrandsPenn EntertainmentPepsicoProcter GamblePhilip Morris InternAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nike Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nike's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nike's current price.

Nike Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nike stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nike shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nike stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nike Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nike Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nike's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nike's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Nike stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Nike Investors Sentiment

The influence of Nike's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Nike. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Nike's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Nike. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nike can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nike Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Nike's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Nike's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Nike's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Nike.

Nike Implied Volatility

    
  33.42  
Nike's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nike Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nike's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nike stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nike's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nike in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nike's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nike options trading.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nike to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Nike Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nike's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Nike Stock analysis

When running Nike Inc price analysis, check to measure Nike's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nike is operating at the current time. Most of Nike's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nike's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nike's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nike to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Nike's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nike. If investors know Nike will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nike listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.043
Market Capitalization
177.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.009
Return On Assets
0.11
Return On Equity
0.43
The market value of Nike Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nike that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nike's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nike's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nike's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nike's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nike's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nike value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nike's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.