Manitowoc Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MTW
 Stock
  

USD 9.56  0.06  0.62%   

Manitowoc Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Manitowoc historical stock prices and determine the direction of Manitowoc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Manitowoc historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Manitowoc naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Manitowoc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Manitowoc fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Manitowoc to cross-verify your projections.
  
Manitowoc PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Manitowoc reported PPandE Turnover of 5.27 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to climb to 10.05 in 2022, whereas Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.94 in 2022. . Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 32.7 M in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 33.2 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Manitowoc Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Manitowoc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Manitowoc's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Manitowoc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Manitowoc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Manitowoc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Manitowoc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Manitowoc. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Manitowoc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Manitowoc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Manitowoc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Manitowoc simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Manitowoc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Manitowoc prices get older.

Manitowoc Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Manitowoc on the next trading day is expected to be 9.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Manitowoc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Manitowoc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Manitowoc Stock Forecast Pattern

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Manitowoc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Manitowoc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Manitowoc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.24 and 12.88, respectively. We have considered Manitowoc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 9.56
9.56
Expected Value
12.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Manitowoc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Manitowoc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8905
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0042
MADMean absolute deviation0.2478
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0277
SAESum of the absolute errors14.87
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Manitowoc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Manitowoc observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Manitowoc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manitowoc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Manitowoc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Manitowoc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
6.249.5612.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.6013.1716.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.009.6010.20
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0025.0031.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Manitowoc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Manitowoc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Manitowoc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Manitowoc.

Other Forecasting Options for Manitowoc

For every potential investor in Manitowoc, whether a beginner or expert, Manitowoc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Manitowoc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Manitowoc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Manitowoc's price trends.

Manitowoc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Manitowoc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Manitowoc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Manitowoc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
BWX TechnologiesAGCOAAR CorpApplied IndustrialAir Products AndArchrockAptarGroupAvery Dennison CorpArmstrong World InduBoeingAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEAN
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Manitowoc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Manitowoc's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Manitowoc's current price.

Manitowoc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Manitowoc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Manitowoc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Manitowoc stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Manitowoc Investors Sentiment

The influence of Manitowoc's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Manitowoc. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Manitowoc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Manitowoc. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Manitowoc can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Manitowoc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Manitowoc's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Manitowoc's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Manitowoc's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Manitowoc.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Manitowoc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Manitowoc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Manitowoc options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Manitowoc using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Manitowoc to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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When running Manitowoc price analysis, check to measure Manitowoc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Manitowoc is operating at the current time. Most of Manitowoc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Manitowoc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Manitowoc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Manitowoc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Manitowoc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Manitowoc. If investors know Manitowoc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Manitowoc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Manitowoc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Manitowoc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Manitowoc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Manitowoc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Manitowoc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Manitowoc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Manitowoc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Manitowoc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Manitowoc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.