Microsoft Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MSFT -  USA Stock  

USD 305.22  0.40  0.13%

Microsoft Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Microsoft Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Microsoft Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Microsoft Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Microsoft Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Microsoft Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Microsoft Corp fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft Corp to cross-verify your projections.

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Microsoft Corp PPandE Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Microsoft Corp reported PPandE Turnover of 3.24 in 2020. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 5.30 in 2021, whereas Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.51 in 2021. . Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 7.3 B in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 7.4 B in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-09-17 Microsoft Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Microsoft Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Microsoft Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Microsoft Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Microsoft Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Microsoft Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Microsoft Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Microsoft. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Microsoft Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Microsoft Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Microsoft Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Microsoft Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Microsoft Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Microsoft Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of September 2021

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Microsoft Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 303.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98, mean absolute percentage error of 5.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.59. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microsoft Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microsoft Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Microsoft Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Microsoft Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Microsoft Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microsoft Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 302.26 and 304.17, respectively. We have considered Microsoft Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
305.22
16th of September 2021
302.26
Downside
303.22
Expected Value
304.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microsoft Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microsoft Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria38.9034
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.976
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0066
SAESum of the absolute errors33.5915
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Microsoft Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Microsoft Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Microsoft Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Microsoft Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
300.59301.58302.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
271.40337.86338.85
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
220.00320.63411.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (10)
LowProjected EPSHigh
7.617.707.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microsoft Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microsoft Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microsoft Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Microsoft Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Microsoft Corp

For every potential investor in Microsoft, whether a beginner or expert, Microsoft Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microsoft Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microsoft. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microsoft Corp's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microsoft Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microsoft Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microsoft Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Microsoft Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Microsoft Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Microsoft Corp's current price.

Microsoft Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microsoft Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microsoft Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microsoft Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microsoft Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Microsoft Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Microsoft Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microsoft Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Microsoft Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Microsoft Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Microsoft Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis

When running Microsoft Corp price analysis, check to measure Microsoft Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Microsoft Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Microsoft Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.