Mereo BioPharma Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MREO
 Stock
  

USD 0.78  0.02  2.50%   

Mereo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mereo BioPharma historical stock prices and determine the direction of Mereo BioPharma Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Mereo BioPharma historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mereo BioPharma to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Mereo Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Mereo BioPharma's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Mereo BioPharma's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Mereo BioPharma stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
No Open Interest
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Mereo BioPharma's open interest, investors have to compare it to Mereo BioPharma's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Mereo BioPharma is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Mereo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Mereo BioPharma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mereo BioPharma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mereo BioPharma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Mereo BioPharma is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mereo BioPharma Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mereo BioPharma Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of December 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mereo BioPharma Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mereo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mereo BioPharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mereo BioPharma Stock Forecast Pattern

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Mereo BioPharma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mereo BioPharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mereo BioPharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0078 and 7.35, respectively. We have considered Mereo BioPharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.78
0.0078
Downside
1.03
Expected Value
7.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mereo BioPharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mereo BioPharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria949.9008
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2089
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.144
SAESum of the absolute errors107.5967
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mereo BioPharma Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mereo BioPharma. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mereo BioPharma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mereo BioPharma Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mereo BioPharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mereo BioPharma in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.040.784.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.142.836.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.710.780.85
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.009.0010.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mereo BioPharma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mereo BioPharma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mereo BioPharma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Mereo BioPharma Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Mereo BioPharma

For every potential investor in Mereo, whether a beginner or expert, Mereo BioPharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mereo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mereo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mereo BioPharma's price trends.

Mereo BioPharma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mereo BioPharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mereo BioPharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mereo BioPharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Crocs IncSamsonite InternationalSamsonite InternationalLincoln Electric HoldingsSkechers USASnap-OnDeckers OutdoorToroAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mereo BioPharma Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mereo BioPharma's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mereo BioPharma's current price.

Mereo BioPharma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mereo BioPharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mereo BioPharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mereo BioPharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mereo BioPharma Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mereo BioPharma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mereo BioPharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mereo BioPharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Mereo BioPharma stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Mereo BioPharma Investors Sentiment

The influence of Mereo BioPharma's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Mereo. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Mereo BioPharma's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Mereo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mereo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mereo BioPharma Group. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Mereo BioPharma's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Mereo BioPharma's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Mereo BioPharma's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Mereo BioPharma.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mereo BioPharma in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mereo BioPharma's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mereo BioPharma options trading.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mereo BioPharma to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Mereo BioPharma Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mereo BioPharma's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Mereo Stock analysis

When running Mereo BioPharma Group price analysis, check to measure Mereo BioPharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mereo BioPharma is operating at the current time. Most of Mereo BioPharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mereo BioPharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mereo BioPharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mereo BioPharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mereo BioPharma's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mereo BioPharma. If investors know Mereo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mereo BioPharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
104.5 M
Return On Assets
(0.21) 
Return On Equity
(0.25) 
The market value of Mereo BioPharma Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mereo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mereo BioPharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mereo BioPharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mereo BioPharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mereo BioPharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mereo BioPharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Mereo BioPharma value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mereo BioPharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.