Mogu Inc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MOGU -  USA Stock  

USD 2.10  0.10  4.55%

Mogu Inc Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mogu Inc historical stock prices and determine the direction of Mogu Inc ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Mogu Inc historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Mogu Inc naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Mogu Inc ADR systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Mogu Inc fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mogu Inc to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Mogu Inc Inventory is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Mogu Inc reported Inventory of 216,000 in 2021. Investments is likely to gain to about 408.4 M in 2022, whereas Trade and Non Trade Payables is likely to drop slightly above 25.6 M in 2022.
Most investors in Mogu Inc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mogu Inc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mogu Inc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Mogu Inc is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mogu Inc ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mogu Inc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mogu Inc ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 1.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.09. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mogu Inc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mogu Inc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mogu Inc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mogu IncMogu Inc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mogu Inc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mogu Inc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mogu Inc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.021 and 10.67, respectively. We have considered Mogu Inc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 2.10
1.99
Expected Value
10.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mogu Inc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mogu Inc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5641
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2145
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0786
SAESum of the absolute errors13.0857
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mogu Inc ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mogu Inc. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mogu Inc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mogu Inc ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mogu Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mogu Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.163.1711.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.112.2110.89
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.362.894.42
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
2.402.402.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mogu Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mogu Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mogu Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Mogu Inc ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Mogu Inc

For every potential investor in Mogu Inc, whether a beginner or expert, Mogu Inc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mogu Inc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mogu Inc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mogu Inc's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mogu Inc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mogu Inc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mogu Inc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Mogu Inc ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mogu Inc's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mogu Inc's current price.

Mogu Inc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mogu Inc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mogu Inc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mogu Inc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mogu Inc ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mogu Inc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mogu Inc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mogu Inc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Mogu Inc stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Mogu Inc Investors Sentiment

The influence of Mogu Inc's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Mogu Inc. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mogu Inc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mogu Inc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mogu Inc options trading.

Current Sentiment - MOGU

Mogu Inc ADR Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are evenly split in their trading attitude regarding investing in Mogu Inc ADR. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Mogu Inc ADR? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mogu Inc to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Mogu Inc ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mogu Inc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running Mogu Inc ADR price analysis, check to measure Mogu Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mogu Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Mogu Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mogu Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mogu Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mogu Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mogu Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mogu Inc. If investors know Mogu Inc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mogu Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Mogu Inc ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mogu Inc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mogu Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mogu Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mogu Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mogu Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mogu Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Mogu Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mogu Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.