Moog Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MOG-A
 Stock
  

USD 88.74  0.17  0.19%   

Moog Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moog historical stock prices and determine the direction of Moog Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Moog historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Moog naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Moog Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Moog fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moog to cross-verify your projections.
  
Moog Receivables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 3.54. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 16.86, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.51. . The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 41.7 M. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 42.1 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Moog Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Moog's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Moog's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Moog stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
No Open Interest
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Moog's open interest, investors have to compare it to Moog's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Moog is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Moog. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Moog cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Moog's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Moog's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Moog polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Moog Inc as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Moog Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Moog Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 88.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moog Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moog's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Moog Stock Forecast Pattern

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Moog Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Moog's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moog's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.71 and 90.39, respectively. We have considered Moog's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 88.74
88.55
Expected Value
90.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moog stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moog stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.9525
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1759
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0151
SAESum of the absolute errors71.731
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Moog historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Moog

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moog Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moog's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moog in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
87.2789.1190.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
82.3884.2297.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
80.0384.8389.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moog. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moog's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moog's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moog Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Moog

For every potential investor in Moog, whether a beginner or expert, Moog's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moog Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moog. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moog's price trends.

Moog Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moog stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moog could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moog by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Applied IndustrialAvery Dennison CorpFastenalGenuine PartsWW GraingerITT IncMueller IndustriesTimken CompanyModernaAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp Billiton
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Moog Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moog's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moog's current price.

Moog Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moog stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moog shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moog stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moog Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Moog Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moog's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moog's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Moog stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Moog without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moog to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

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When running Moog Inc price analysis, check to measure Moog's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moog is operating at the current time. Most of Moog's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moog's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moog's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moog to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Moog's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moog value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moog's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.