Moog Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MOG-A
 Stock
  

USD 88.23  1.36  1.57%   

Moog Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moog historical stock prices and determine the direction of Moog Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Moog historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Moog naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Moog Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Moog fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moog to cross-verify your projections.
  
Moog PPandE Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's PPandE Turnover was at 4.63. The current year Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 3.52, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is forecasted to decline to 14.46. . The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 35.7 M. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 36 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Moog Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Moog's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Moog's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Moog stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
No Open Interest
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Moog's open interest, investors have to compare it to Moog's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Moog is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Moog. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Moog cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Moog's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Moog's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Moog is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Moog Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Moog Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moog Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 87.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moog Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moog's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Moog Stock Forecast Pattern

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Moog Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Moog's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moog's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 85.58 and 89.37, respectively. We have considered Moog's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 88.23
87.47
Expected Value
89.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moog stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moog stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5881
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0315
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors62.9233
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Moog Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Moog. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Moog

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moog Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moog's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moog in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
84.9186.8188.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
78.1898.15100.05
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
77.2384.4691.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moog. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moog's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moog's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moog Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Moog

For every potential investor in Moog, whether a beginner or expert, Moog's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moog Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moog. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moog's price trends.

Moog Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moog stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moog could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moog by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
FastenalUnited RentalsATT IncCisco SystemsThe Travelers CompaniesVerizon CommunicationsMicrosoftChevron CorpCoca-ColaAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Moog Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moog's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moog's current price.

Moog Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moog's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moog's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Moog stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Moog without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moog to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Moog's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moog value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moog's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.