Magellan Health Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

Magellan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Magellan Health historical stock prices and determine the direction of Magellan Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Magellan Health historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Magellan Health naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Magellan Health systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Magellan Health fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Correlation Analysis.
  
Magellan Health Asset Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Asset Turnover is estimated at 1.46. Magellan Health Weighted Average Shares is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 23.08 Million. Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to rise to about 79.6 M this year, although the value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted will most likely fall to about 27.8 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Magellan Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Magellan Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Magellan Health's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Magellan Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Magellan Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Magellan Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Magellan Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Magellan. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Magellan Health cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Magellan Health's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Magellan Health's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Magellan Health polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Magellan Health as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Magellan Health Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Magellan Health on the next trading day is expected to be 95.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.012522, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magellan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magellan Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Magellan Health Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Magellan HealthMagellan Health Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magellan Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magellan Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.7302
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0874
MAPEMean absolute percentage error9.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors5.333
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Magellan Health historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Magellan Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magellan Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Magellan Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Magellan Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.1923.7523.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
94.2894.6795.06
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
95.0095.0095.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Magellan Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Magellan Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Magellan Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Magellan Health.

Magellan Health Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Magellan Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Magellan Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Magellan Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Concord Medical ServicesCommunity Health SystemsDavita HealthcareHca HoldingsLaboratory CorpPediatrix MedicalSelect Medical HoldingsAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value Factor
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Magellan Health Risk Indicators

The analysis of Magellan Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Magellan Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Magellan Health stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Magellan Health in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Magellan Health's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Magellan Health options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Magellan Health using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Additionally, see Correlation Analysis. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Other Tools for Magellan Stock

When running Magellan Health price analysis, check to measure Magellan Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Magellan Health is operating at the current time. Most of Magellan Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Magellan Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Magellan Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Magellan Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go