THE MERGER Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

MERFX
 Fund
  

USD 17.39  0.01  0.06%   

MERFX Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast THE MERGER historical stock prices and determine the direction of THE MERGER FUND's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of THE MERGER historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of THE MERGER to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in THE MERGER cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the THE MERGER's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets THE MERGER's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for THE MERGER - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When THE MERGER prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in THE MERGER price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of THE MERGER FUND.

THE MERGER Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of THE MERGER FUND on the next trading day is expected to be 17.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.020329, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00097407, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MERFX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THE MERGER's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

THE MERGER Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest THE MERGERTHE MERGER Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

THE MERGER Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting THE MERGER's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. THE MERGER's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.23 and 17.56, respectively. We have considered THE MERGER's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 17.39
17.39
Expected Value
17.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THE MERGER mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THE MERGER mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.003
MADMean absolute deviation0.0203
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0012
SAESum of the absolute errors1.1994
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past THE MERGER observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older THE MERGER FUND observations.

Predictive Modules for THE MERGER

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as THE MERGER FUND. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of THE MERGER's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of THE MERGER in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
17.2017.3717.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
17.2017.3717.54
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as THE MERGER. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against THE MERGER's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, THE MERGER's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in THE MERGER FUND.

Other Forecasting Options for THE MERGER

For every potential investor in MERFX, whether a beginner or expert, THE MERGER's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MERFX Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MERFX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying THE MERGER's price trends.

THE MERGER Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with THE MERGER mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of THE MERGER could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing THE MERGER by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Coca-ColaBarloworld ADRBondbloxx ETF TrustFT Cboe VestKlckner Co SEAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-Term
 Risk & Return  Correlation

THE MERGER FUND Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of THE MERGER's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of THE MERGER's current price.

THE MERGER Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how THE MERGER mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading THE MERGER shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying THE MERGER mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify THE MERGER FUND entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

THE MERGER Risk Indicators

The analysis of THE MERGER's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in THE MERGER's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting THE MERGER stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards THE MERGER in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, THE MERGER's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from THE MERGER options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as THE MERGER FUND using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of THE MERGER to cross-verify your projections. Note that the THE MERGER FUND information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other THE MERGER's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

Complementary Tools for MERFX Mutual Fund analysis

When running THE MERGER FUND price analysis, check to measure THE MERGER's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy THE MERGER is operating at the current time. Most of THE MERGER's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of THE MERGER's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move THE MERGER's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of THE MERGER to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between THE MERGER's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine THE MERGER value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, THE MERGER's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.