Merger Fund Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

MERFX
 Fund
  

USD 17.46  0.01  0.06%   

Merger Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Merger Fund historical stock prices and determine the direction of Merger Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Merger Fund historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merger Fund to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Merger Fund cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Merger Fund's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Merger Fund's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Merger Fund is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Merger Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Merger Fund Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merger Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 17.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.048561, mean absolute percentage error of 0.003631, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merger Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merger Fund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Merger Fund Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Merger Fund Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Merger Fund's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merger Fund's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.32 and 17.80, respectively. We have considered Merger Fund's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 17.46
17.56
Expected Value
17.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merger Fund mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merger Fund mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.4923
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0486
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0028
SAESum of the absolute errors2.9622
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Merger Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Merger Fund. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Merger Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merger Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merger Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merger Fund in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.000.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.000.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.1617.3517.54
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merger Fund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merger Fund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merger Fund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merger Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for Merger Fund

For every potential investor in Merger, whether a beginner or expert, Merger Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merger Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merger. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merger Fund's price trends.

Merger Fund Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merger Fund mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merger Fund could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merger Fund by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alcoa CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INCMaiden Holdings NorthVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merger Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merger Fund's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merger Fund's current price.

Merger Fund Risk Indicators

The analysis of Merger Fund's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merger Fund's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Merger Fund stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Merger Fund in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Merger Fund's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Merger Fund options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Merger Fund using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merger Fund to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Merger Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merger Fund's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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When running Merger Fund price analysis, check to measure Merger Fund's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merger Fund is operating at the current time. Most of Merger Fund's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merger Fund's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merger Fund's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merger Fund to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Merger Fund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merger Fund value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merger Fund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.