Mercadolibre Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MELI
 Stock
  

USD 1,064  68.73  6.90%   

Mercadolibre Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mercadolibre historical stock prices and determine the direction of Mercadolibre's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Mercadolibre historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Mercadolibre naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Mercadolibre systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Mercadolibre fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercadolibre to cross-verify your projections.
  
Mercadolibre Accounts Payable Turnover is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 8.24. The current Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated to increase to 174.09, while PPandE Turnover is projected to decrease to 10.50. . The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to increase to about 52.6 M. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 52.6 M.
Most investors in Mercadolibre cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mercadolibre's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mercadolibre's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Mercadolibre is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mercadolibre value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mercadolibre Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mercadolibre on the next trading day is expected to be 1,138 with a mean absolute deviation of 36.07, mean absolute percentage error of 1,998, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,200.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mercadolibre Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mercadolibre's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mercadolibre Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MercadolibreMercadolibre Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mercadolibre Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mercadolibre's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mercadolibre's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,133 and 1,144, respectively. We have considered Mercadolibre's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1,064
1,138
Expected Value
1,144
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mercadolibre stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mercadolibre stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.7106
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation36.073
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.048
SAESum of the absolute errors2200.4515
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mercadolibre. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mercadolibre. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mercadolibre

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercadolibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercadolibre's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mercadolibre in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1,0611,0661,072
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
957.811,2621,268
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
547.76806.611,065
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
1,2501,9782,250
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mercadolibre. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mercadolibre's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mercadolibre's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Mercadolibre.

Other Forecasting Options for Mercadolibre

For every potential investor in Mercadolibre, whether a beginner or expert, Mercadolibre's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mercadolibre Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mercadolibre. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mercadolibre's price trends.

Mercadolibre Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mercadolibre stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mercadolibre could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mercadolibre by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAlibaba Group HoldingChewy IncApple IncAllovirHP IncCisco SystemsATT Inc3M CompanyAlcoa CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 Covered
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mercadolibre Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mercadolibre's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mercadolibre's current price.

Mercadolibre Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mercadolibre stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mercadolibre shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mercadolibre stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mercadolibre entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mercadolibre Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mercadolibre's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mercadolibre's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Mercadolibre stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Mercadolibre Investors Sentiment

The influence of Mercadolibre's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Mercadolibre. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Mercadolibre's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Mercadolibre. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mercadolibre can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mercadolibre. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Mercadolibre's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Mercadolibre's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Mercadolibre's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Mercadolibre.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mercadolibre in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mercadolibre's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mercadolibre options trading.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercadolibre to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Mercadolibre information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mercadolibre's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for Mercadolibre Stock analysis

When running Mercadolibre price analysis, check to measure Mercadolibre's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercadolibre is operating at the current time. Most of Mercadolibre's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercadolibre's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercadolibre's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercadolibre to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mercadolibre's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mercadolibre. If investors know Mercadolibre will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mercadolibre listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Mercadolibre is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mercadolibre that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mercadolibre's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mercadolibre's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mercadolibre's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mercadolibre's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mercadolibre's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Mercadolibre value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mercadolibre's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.