# Moleculin Biotech Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

MBRX | Stock | ## USD 1.68 0.05 3.07% |

Moleculin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moleculin Biotech historical stock prices and determine the direction of Moleculin Biotech CS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Moleculin Biotech historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Moleculin Biotech naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Moleculin Biotech CS systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Moleculin Biotech fundamentals over time.

Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moleculin Biotech to cross-verify your projections. Moleculin |

**M**in 2022, whereas Accounts Payable is likely to drop slightly above 1.2

**M**in 2022.

Most investors in Moleculin Biotech cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Moleculin Biotech's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Moleculin Biotech's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Moleculin Biotech price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. ## Moleculin Biotech Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Moleculin Biotech CS on the next trading day is expected to be 1.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.008404, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moleculin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moleculin Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

## Moleculin Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Moleculin Biotech | Moleculin Biotech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |

## Moleculin Biotech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Moleculin Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moleculin Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0168 and 5.63, respectively. We have considered Moleculin Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

## Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moleculin Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moleculin Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1693 |

Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |

MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0747 |

MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0476 |

SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.6305 |

## Predictive Modules for Moleculin Biotech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moleculin Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moleculin Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moleculin Biotech in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moleculin Biotech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moleculin Biotech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moleculin Biotech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moleculin Biotech.

## Other Forecasting Options for Moleculin Biotech

For every potential investor in Moleculin, whether a beginner or expert, Moleculin Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moleculin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moleculin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moleculin Biotech's price trends.## Moleculin Biotech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moleculin Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moleculin Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moleculin Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Risk & Return | Correlation |

## Moleculin Biotech Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moleculin Biotech's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moleculin Biotech's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||

Math Operators | ||

Math Transform | ||

Momentum Indicators | ||

Overlap Studies | ||

Pattern Recognition | ||

Price Transform | ||

Statistic Functions | ||

Volatility Indicators | ||

Volume Indicators |

## Moleculin Biotech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moleculin Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moleculin Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Moleculin Biotech stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||

Semi Deviation | 3.47 | |||

Standard Deviation | 3.87 | |||

Variance | 14.97 | |||

Downside Variance | 14.27 | |||

Semi Variance | 12.06 | |||

Expected Short fall | (3.24) |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

## Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Moleculin Biotech without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.## Did you try this?

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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Moleculin Biotech using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.## Build Optimal Portfolios

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moleculin Biotech to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Moleculin Biotech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moleculin Biotech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

## Complementary Tools for Moleculin Stock analysis

When running Moleculin Biotech price analysis, check to measure Moleculin Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moleculin Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Moleculin Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moleculin Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moleculin Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Moleculin Biotech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moleculin Biotech. If investors know Moleculin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moleculin Biotech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Market Capitalization 48 M | Return On Assets -0.17 | Return On Equity -0.23 |

The market value of Moleculin Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moleculin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moleculin Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moleculin Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moleculin Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moleculin Biotech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Moleculin Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moleculin Biotech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moleculin Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.