Moleculin Biotech Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

MBRX
 Stock
  

USD 1.62  0.01  0.61%   

Moleculin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moleculin Biotech historical stock prices and determine the direction of Moleculin Biotech CS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Moleculin Biotech historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Moleculin Biotech naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Moleculin Biotech CS systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Moleculin Biotech fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moleculin Biotech to cross-verify your projections.
  
Moleculin Biotech Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Moleculin Biotech reported Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income of 41,000 in 2021. Total Assets is likely to rise to about 90.7 M in 2022, whereas Accounts Payable is likely to drop slightly above 1.2 M in 2022.
Most investors in Moleculin Biotech cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Moleculin Biotech's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Moleculin Biotech's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Moleculin Biotech is based on an artificially constructed time series of Moleculin Biotech daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Moleculin Biotech 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Moleculin Biotech CS on the next trading day is expected to be 1.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.008611, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.98.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moleculin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moleculin Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Moleculin Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Moleculin BiotechMoleculin Biotech Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Moleculin Biotech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Moleculin Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moleculin Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0162 and 5.43, respectively. We have considered Moleculin Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.62
0.0162
Downside
1.68
Expected Value
5.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moleculin Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moleculin Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria98.6527
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0222
MADMean absolute deviation0.0751
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0464
SAESum of the absolute errors3.9788
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Moleculin Biotech CS 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Moleculin Biotech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moleculin Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moleculin Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moleculin Biotech in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.081.585.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.465.969.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.551.711.88
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0019.0029.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moleculin Biotech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moleculin Biotech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moleculin Biotech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moleculin Biotech.

Other Forecasting Options for Moleculin Biotech

For every potential investor in Moleculin, whether a beginner or expert, Moleculin Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moleculin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moleculin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moleculin Biotech's price trends.

Moleculin Biotech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moleculin Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moleculin Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moleculin Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alcoa CorpVerizon CommunicationsCoca-ColaChevron CorpATT IncCisco SystemsMcDonalds CorpHome DepotGeneral ElectricAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Moleculin Biotech Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moleculin Biotech's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moleculin Biotech's current price.

Moleculin Biotech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moleculin Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moleculin Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Moleculin Biotech stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Moleculin Biotech Investors Sentiment

The influence of Moleculin Biotech's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Moleculin. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Moleculin Biotech in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Moleculin Biotech's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Moleculin Biotech options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moleculin Biotech to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Moleculin Biotech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moleculin Biotech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for Moleculin Stock analysis

When running Moleculin Biotech price analysis, check to measure Moleculin Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moleculin Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Moleculin Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moleculin Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moleculin Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Moleculin Biotech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moleculin Biotech. If investors know Moleculin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moleculin Biotech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
46.3 M
Return On Assets
-0.19
Return On Equity
-0.28
The market value of Moleculin Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moleculin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moleculin Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moleculin Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moleculin Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moleculin Biotech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moleculin Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moleculin Biotech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moleculin Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.