Merchants Bancorp Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

MBIN
 Stock
  

USD 23.50  0.90  3.69%   

Merchants Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Merchants Bancorp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Merchants Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Merchants Bancorp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merchants Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Merchants Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Merchants Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Merchants Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Merchants Bancorp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Merchants Bancorp 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merchants Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merchants Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Merchants Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Merchants Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Merchants Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merchants Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.41 and 25.94, respectively. We have considered Merchants Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 23.50
24.18
Expected Value
25.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merchants Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merchants Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.1944
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0373
MADMean absolute deviation0.5777
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0227
SAESum of the absolute errors32.93
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Merchants Bancorp. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Merchants Bancorp and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Merchants Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merchants Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merchants Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merchants Bancorp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21.7623.5225.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
21.1530.9232.68
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
47.0052.3355.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merchants Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merchants Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merchants Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merchants Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for Merchants Bancorp

For every potential investor in Merchants, whether a beginner or expert, Merchants Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merchants Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merchants. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merchants Bancorp's price trends.

Merchants Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merchants Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merchants Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merchants Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sigma Lithium CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merchants Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merchants Bancorp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merchants Bancorp's current price.

Merchants Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merchants Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merchants Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merchants Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merchants Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Merchants Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Merchants Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merchants Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Merchants Bancorp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Merchants Bancorp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merchants Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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Is Merchants Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merchants Bancorp. If investors know Merchants will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merchants Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Merchants Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merchants that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merchants Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merchants Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merchants Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merchants Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merchants Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merchants Bancorp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merchants Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.