Mediaalpha Inc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MAX
 Stock
  

USD 12.04  0.11  0.91%   

Mediaalpha Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mediaalpha Inc historical stock prices and determine the direction of Mediaalpha Inc Cl's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Mediaalpha Inc historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mediaalpha Inc to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Mediaalpha Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Mediaalpha Inc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Mediaalpha Inc's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Mediaalpha Inc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Mediaalpha Inc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Mediaalpha Inc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Mediaalpha Inc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Mediaalpha. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Mediaalpha Inc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mediaalpha Inc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mediaalpha Inc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Mediaalpha Inc is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mediaalpha Inc Cl value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mediaalpha Inc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mediaalpha Inc Cl on the next trading day is expected to be 10.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mediaalpha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mediaalpha Inc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mediaalpha Inc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mediaalpha IncMediaalpha Inc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mediaalpha Inc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mediaalpha Inc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mediaalpha Inc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.38 and 15.30, respectively. We have considered Mediaalpha Inc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 12.04
10.34
Expected Value
15.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mediaalpha Inc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mediaalpha Inc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9864
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4213
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0383
SAESum of the absolute errors25.6994
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mediaalpha Inc Cl. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mediaalpha Inc. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mediaalpha Inc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mediaalpha Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mediaalpha Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mediaalpha Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.5912.5517.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.8418.7223.68
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.2912.6214.00
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0039.0070.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mediaalpha Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mediaalpha Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mediaalpha Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Mediaalpha Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Mediaalpha Inc

For every potential investor in Mediaalpha, whether a beginner or expert, Mediaalpha Inc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mediaalpha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mediaalpha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mediaalpha Inc's price trends.

Mediaalpha Inc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mediaalpha Inc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mediaalpha Inc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mediaalpha Inc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Baidu Inc ADRAlphabet Cl CMaxeon Solar TechAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology Hldgs
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mediaalpha Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mediaalpha Inc's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mediaalpha Inc's current price.

Mediaalpha Inc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mediaalpha Inc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mediaalpha Inc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mediaalpha Inc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mediaalpha Inc Cl entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mediaalpha Inc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mediaalpha Inc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mediaalpha Inc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Mediaalpha Inc stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mediaalpha Inc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mediaalpha Inc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mediaalpha Inc options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Mediaalpha Inc using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mediaalpha Inc to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Mediaalpha Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mediaalpha Inc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for Mediaalpha Stock analysis

When running Mediaalpha Inc price analysis, check to measure Mediaalpha Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mediaalpha Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Mediaalpha Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mediaalpha Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mediaalpha Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mediaalpha Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mediaalpha Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mediaalpha Inc. If investors know Mediaalpha will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mediaalpha Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
724.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.42) 
Return On Assets
(0.09) 
The market value of Mediaalpha Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mediaalpha that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mediaalpha Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mediaalpha Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mediaalpha Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mediaalpha Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mediaalpha Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Mediaalpha Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mediaalpha Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.