Macys Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

M
 Stock
  

USD 23.50  0.01  0.0426%   

Macys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Macys historical stock prices and determine the direction of Macys Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Macys historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Macys naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Macys Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Macys fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macys to cross-verify your projections.
  
Macys Accounts Payable Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated at 9.46. Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to hike to 43.12 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 81.01. . Macys Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 348.42 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 355.6 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (1.1 B).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-02 Macys Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Macys' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Macys' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Macys stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Macys' open interest, investors have to compare it to Macys' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Macys is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Macys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Macys cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Macys' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Macys' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Macys simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Macys Inc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Macys Inc prices get older.

Macys Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 23.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Macys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Macys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Macys Stock Forecast Pattern

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Macys Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Macys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Macys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.90 and 27.07, respectively. We have considered Macys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 23.50
23.49
Expected Value
27.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Macys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Macys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5053
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.146
MADMean absolute deviation0.5006
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0264
SAESum of the absolute errors30.0371
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Macys Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Macys observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Macys

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macys Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Macys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Macys in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
19.6723.2926.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
21.1429.7833.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.6121.0023.38
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.0031.6045.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Macys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Macys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Macys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Macys Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Macys

For every potential investor in Macys, whether a beginner or expert, Macys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Macys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Macys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Macys' price trends.

Macys Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Macys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Macys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Macys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Big LotsAarons HoldingsCaseys General StorBed Bath BeyondAlibaba Group HoldingCostco WholesaleBest BuyDollar General CorpDollar TreeAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp Billiton
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Macys Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Macys' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Macys' current price.

Macys Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Macys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Macys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Macys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Macys Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Macys Risk Indicators

The analysis of Macys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Macys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Macys stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Macys without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macys to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Macys Inc price analysis, check to measure Macys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macys is operating at the current time. Most of Macys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Macys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Macys. If investors know Macys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Macys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.49) 
Market Capitalization
6.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.038) 
Return On Assets
0.069
Return On Equity
0.44
The market value of Macys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Macys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Macys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Macys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Macys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Macys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Macys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Macys value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Macys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.