LiCycle Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

LICY
 Stock
  

USD 6.29  0.28  4.66%   

LiCycle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast LiCycle Holdings historical stock prices and determine the direction of LiCycle Holdings Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of LiCycle Holdings historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of LiCycle Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 LiCycle Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast LiCycle Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest LiCycle Holdings' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies LiCycle Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current LiCycle Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to LiCycle Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of LiCycle Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in LiCycle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in LiCycle Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the LiCycle Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets LiCycle Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for LiCycle Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of LiCycle Holdings Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

LiCycle Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of LiCycle Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.039999, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LiCycle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LiCycle Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

LiCycle Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

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LiCycle Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting LiCycle Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LiCycle Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.29 and 10.39, respectively. We have considered LiCycle Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 6.29
6.34
Expected Value
10.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LiCycle Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LiCycle Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7295
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1614
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0271
SAESum of the absolute errors10.0076
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of LiCycle Holdings Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict LiCycle Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for LiCycle Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LiCycle Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of LiCycle Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of LiCycle Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1.885.939.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.947.9912.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.595.986.37
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.0014.5717.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as LiCycle Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against LiCycle Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, LiCycle Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in LiCycle Holdings Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for LiCycle Holdings

For every potential investor in LiCycle, whether a beginner or expert, LiCycle Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LiCycle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LiCycle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LiCycle Holdings' price trends.

LiCycle Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LiCycle Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LiCycle Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LiCycle Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Etsy IncFT Cboe VestVANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTHAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

LiCycle Holdings Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LiCycle Holdings' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LiCycle Holdings' current price.

LiCycle Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LiCycle Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LiCycle Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LiCycle Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LiCycle Holdings Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

LiCycle Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of LiCycle Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LiCycle Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting LiCycle Holdings stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards LiCycle Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, LiCycle Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from LiCycle Holdings options trading.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of LiCycle Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Note that the LiCycle Holdings Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other LiCycle Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

Complementary Tools for LiCycle Stock analysis

When running LiCycle Holdings Corp price analysis, check to measure LiCycle Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LiCycle Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of LiCycle Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LiCycle Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LiCycle Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LiCycle Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is LiCycle Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LiCycle Holdings. If investors know LiCycle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LiCycle Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
1.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
32.62
Return On Assets
(0.11) 
Return On Equity
(0.85) 
The market value of LiCycle Holdings Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LiCycle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LiCycle Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LiCycle Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LiCycle Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LiCycle Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LiCycle Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine LiCycle Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LiCycle Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.