LCI Industries Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

LCII
 Stock
  

USD 97.62  0.79  0.82%   

LCI Industries Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast LCI Industries historical stock prices and determine the direction of LCI Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of LCI Industries historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although LCI Industries naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of LCI Industries systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of LCI Industries fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections.
  
LCI Industries Accounts Payable Turnover is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 19.15. The current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 2.06, while PPandE Turnover is projected to decrease to 9.50. . The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to decrease to about 23.4 M. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to decrease to about 23.6 M.
Most investors in LCI Industries cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the LCI Industries' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets LCI Industries' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for LCI Industries - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When LCI Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in LCI Industries price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of LCI Industries.

LCI Industries Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LCI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 97.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.55, mean absolute percentage error of 11.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 150.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LCI Industries Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LCI Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

LCI Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

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LCI Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting LCI Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LCI Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 94.20 and 100.56, respectively. We have considered LCI Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 97.62
97.38
Expected Value
100.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LCI Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LCI Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.5499
MADMean absolute deviation2.5534
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0257
SAESum of the absolute errors150.6488
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past LCI Industries observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older LCI Industries observations.

Predictive Modules for LCI Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LCI Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of LCI Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of LCI Industries in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
94.8598.03101.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
88.57116.60119.78
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
91.9698.98106.00
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
160.00170.00178.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as LCI Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against LCI Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, LCI Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in LCI Industries.

Other Forecasting Options for LCI Industries

For every potential investor in LCI Industries, whether a beginner or expert, LCI Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LCI Industries Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LCI Industries. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LCI Industries' price trends.

LCI Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LCI Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LCI Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LCI Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Cigna CorpHealthcare TrustMolina HealthcareCarePayment TechnologiesMedical Properties TrustVentas IncHealthpeak PropertiesAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USA
 Risk & Return  Correlation

LCI Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LCI Industries' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LCI Industries' current price.

LCI Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LCI Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LCI Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LCI Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LCI Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

LCI Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of LCI Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LCI Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting LCI Industries stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards LCI Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, LCI Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from LCI Industries options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running LCI Industries price analysis, check to measure LCI Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LCI Industries is operating at the current time. Most of LCI Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LCI Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LCI Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LCI Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is LCI Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LCI Industries. If investors know LCI Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LCI Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of LCI Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LCI Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LCI Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LCI Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LCI Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LCI Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LCI Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine LCI Industries value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LCI Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.