LCI Industries Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

LCII
 Stock
  

USD 105.50  6.38  6.44%   

LCI Industries Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast LCI Industries historical stock prices and determine the direction of LCI Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of LCI Industries historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although LCI Industries naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of LCI Industries systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of LCI Industries fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections.
  
LCI Industries Accounts Payable Turnover is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 19.15. The current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 2.06, while PPandE Turnover is projected to decrease to 9.50. . The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to decrease to about 23.4 M. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to decrease to about 23.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 LCI Industries Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast LCI Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest LCI Industries' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies LCI Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current LCI Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to LCI Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of LCI Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in LCI Industries. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in LCI Industries cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the LCI Industries' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets LCI Industries' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for LCI Industries works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

LCI Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LCI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 106.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.70, mean absolute percentage error of 12.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 159.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LCI Industries Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LCI Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

LCI Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest LCI IndustriesLCI Industries Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

LCI Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting LCI Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LCI Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 103.21 and 109.67, respectively. We have considered LCI Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 105.50
103.21
Downside
106.44
Expected Value
109.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LCI Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LCI Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.6518
MADMean absolute deviation2.7028
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.027
SAESum of the absolute errors159.4667
When LCI Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any LCI Industries trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent LCI Industries observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for LCI Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LCI Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of LCI Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of LCI Industries in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
102.15105.38108.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
94.95121.52124.75
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
160.00170.00178.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
10.8010.9011.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as LCI Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against LCI Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, LCI Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in LCI Industries.

Other Forecasting Options for LCI Industries

For every potential investor in LCI Industries, whether a beginner or expert, LCI Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LCI Industries Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LCI Industries. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LCI Industries' price trends.

LCI Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LCI Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LCI Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LCI Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Ford MotorArcimotoGoodyear Tire RubberAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

LCI Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LCI Industries' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LCI Industries' current price.

LCI Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LCI Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LCI Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LCI Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LCI Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

LCI Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of LCI Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LCI Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting LCI Industries stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

LCI Industries Investors Sentiment

The influence of LCI Industries' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in LCI Industries. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to LCI Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in LCI Industries. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding LCI Industries can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around LCI Industries. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
LCI Industries' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for LCI Industries' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average LCI Industries' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on LCI Industries.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards LCI Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, LCI Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from LCI Industries options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as LCI Industries using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of LCI Industries to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running LCI Industries price analysis, check to measure LCI Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LCI Industries is operating at the current time. Most of LCI Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LCI Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LCI Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LCI Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is LCI Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LCI Industries. If investors know LCI Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LCI Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.036) 
Market Capitalization
2.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.029) 
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.4
The market value of LCI Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LCI Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LCI Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LCI Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LCI Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LCI Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LCI Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine LCI Industries value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LCI Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.