Kura Oncology Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

KURA
 Stock
  

USD 14.86  0.48  3.13%   

Kura Oncology Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kura Oncology historical stock prices and determine the direction of Kura Oncology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Kura Oncology historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kura Oncology naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Kura Oncology systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kura Oncology fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kura Oncology to cross-verify your projections.
  
Kura Oncology Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Total Assets were at 534.05 Million. The current year Current Assets is expected to grow to about 563.5 M, whereas Accounts Payable is forecasted to decline to about 2.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Kura Oncology Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kura Oncology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Kura Oncology's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Kura Oncology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kura Oncology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kura Oncology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kura Oncology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kura Oncology. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Kura Oncology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kura Oncology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kura Oncology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Kura Oncology is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Kura Oncology value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Kura Oncology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kura Oncology on the next trading day is expected to be 16.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kura Oncology Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kura Oncology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kura Oncology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Kura OncologyKura Oncology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kura Oncology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kura Oncology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kura Oncology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.71 and 20.27, respectively. We have considered Kura Oncology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 14.86
16.49
Expected Value
20.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kura Oncology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kura Oncology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.3245
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5385
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0373
SAESum of the absolute errors32.847
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Kura Oncology. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Kura Oncology. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Kura Oncology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kura Oncology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kura Oncology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kura Oncology in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.9614.7718.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.3721.0724.88
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
32.0042.2556.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-2.1-2.01-1.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kura Oncology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kura Oncology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kura Oncology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kura Oncology.

Other Forecasting Options for Kura Oncology

For every potential investor in Kura Oncology, whether a beginner or expert, Kura Oncology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kura Oncology Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kura Oncology. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kura Oncology's price trends.

Kura Oncology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kura Oncology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kura Oncology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kura Oncology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Regeneron PharmaceuticalsVertex PharmaceuticAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kura Oncology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kura Oncology's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kura Oncology's current price.

Kura Oncology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kura Oncology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kura Oncology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kura Oncology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kura Oncology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kura Oncology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kura Oncology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kura Oncology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Kura Oncology stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Kura Oncology Investors Sentiment

The influence of Kura Oncology's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Kura Oncology. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Kura Oncology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Kura Oncology. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kura Oncology can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kura Oncology. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Kura Oncology's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Kura Oncology's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Kura Oncology's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Kura Oncology.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Kura Oncology in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Kura Oncology's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Kura Oncology options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Kura Oncology using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kura Oncology to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Kura Oncology price analysis, check to measure Kura Oncology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kura Oncology is operating at the current time. Most of Kura Oncology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kura Oncology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kura Oncology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kura Oncology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kura Oncology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kura Oncology. If investors know Kura Oncology will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kura Oncology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
994.1 M
Return On Assets
(0.17) 
Return On Equity
(0.28) 
The market value of Kura Oncology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kura Oncology that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kura Oncology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kura Oncology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kura Oncology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kura Oncology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kura Oncology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kura Oncology value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kura Oncology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.