Coca Cola Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

KO
 Stock
  

USD 63.81  0.27  0.42%   

Coca Cola Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Coca Cola historical stock prices and determine the direction of Coca-Cola Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Coca Cola historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Coca Cola naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Coca-Cola Co systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Coca Cola fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coca Cola to cross-verify your projections.
  
Coca Cola Inventory Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Inventory Turnover is estimated at 5.47. Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to rise to 13.81 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 3.40. . Weighted Average Shares is expected to rise to about 4.8 B this year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 4.9 B this year.
Most investors in Coca Cola cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Coca Cola's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Coca Cola's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Coca Cola works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Coca Cola Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Coca-Cola Co on the next trading day is expected to be 63.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Coca Cola Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Coca Cola's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Coca Cola Stock Forecast Pattern

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Coca Cola Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Coca Cola's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Coca Cola's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.70 and 65.26, respectively. We have considered Coca Cola's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 63.81
63.98
Expected Value
65.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Coca Cola stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Coca Cola stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1242
MADMean absolute deviation0.563
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0097
SAESum of the absolute errors33.7799
When Coca-Cola Co prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Coca-Cola Co trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Coca Cola observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Coca Cola

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coca-Cola. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Coca Cola's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Coca Cola in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
62.5663.8365.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
55.5756.8470.19
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
58.0261.5365.04
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
58.0062.6466.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Coca Cola. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Coca Cola's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Coca Cola's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Coca-Cola.

Other Forecasting Options for Coca Cola

For every potential investor in Coca Cola, whether a beginner or expert, Coca Cola's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Coca Cola Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Coca Cola. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Coca Cola's price trends.

Coca Cola Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Coca Cola stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Coca Cola could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Coca Cola by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Boeing3M CompanyHome DepotVerizon CommunicationsJPMorgan ChaseProcter GambleDupont De NemoursJohnson JohnsonCisco SystemsAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Coca-Cola Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Coca Cola's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Coca Cola's current price.

Coca Cola Risk Indicators

The analysis of Coca Cola's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Coca Cola's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Coca Cola stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Coca Cola without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coca Cola to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running Coca-Cola price analysis, check to measure Coca Cola's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Coca Cola is operating at the current time. Most of Coca Cola's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Coca Cola's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Coca Cola's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Coca Cola to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Coca Cola's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Coca Cola. If investors know Coca Cola will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Coca Cola listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.14
Market Capitalization
274.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.102
Return On Assets
0.0836
Return On Equity
44.1268
The market value of Coca-Cola is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Coca Cola that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Coca Cola's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Coca Cola's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Coca Cola's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Coca Cola's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Coca Cola's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Coca Cola value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Coca Cola's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.