Kimball Electronics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

KE
 Stock
  

USD 24.11  0.85  3.65%   

Kimball Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kimball Electronics historical stock prices and determine the direction of Kimball Electronics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Kimball Electronics historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kimball Electronics naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Kimball Electronics systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kimball Electronics fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kimball Electronics to cross-verify your projections.
  
Kimball Electronics Accounts Payable Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Accounts Payable Turnover was at 5.14. The current year Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to grow to 33.84, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 7.12. . Kimball Electronics Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 25.22 Million.
Most investors in Kimball Electronics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kimball Electronics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kimball Electronics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Kimball Electronics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Kimball Electronics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Kimball Electronics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kimball Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 23.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kimball Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kimball Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kimball Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Kimball Electronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kimball Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kimball Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.62 and 25.86, respectively. We have considered Kimball Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 24.11
23.74
Expected Value
25.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kimball Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kimball Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3016
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3004
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0149
SAESum of the absolute errors18.3272
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Kimball Electronics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Kimball Electronics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Kimball Electronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kimball Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kimball Electronics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kimball Electronics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21.1723.2925.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.9325.8527.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
21.4522.7023.94
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
26.0026.0026.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kimball Electronics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kimball Electronics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kimball Electronics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kimball Electronics.

Other Forecasting Options for Kimball Electronics

For every potential investor in Kimball, whether a beginner or expert, Kimball Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kimball Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kimball. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kimball Electronics' price trends.

Kimball Electronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kimball Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kimball Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kimball Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Thai Oil PCLValero EnergyNeste OyjCVR EnergyValvolineMotor Oil HellasIRPC PCL ADRAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USA
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kimball Electronics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kimball Electronics' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kimball Electronics' current price.

Kimball Electronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kimball Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kimball Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kimball Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kimball Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kimball Electronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kimball Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kimball Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Kimball Electronics stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Kimball Electronics without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kimball Electronics to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Kimball Electronics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Kimball Electronics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Kimball Stock analysis

When running Kimball Electronics price analysis, check to measure Kimball Electronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kimball Electronics is operating at the current time. Most of Kimball Electronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kimball Electronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kimball Electronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kimball Electronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kimball Electronics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kimball Electronics. If investors know Kimball will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kimball Electronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Kimball Electronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kimball that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kimball Electronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kimball Electronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kimball Electronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kimball Electronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kimball Electronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kimball Electronics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kimball Electronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.