John Hancock Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

JRLFX
 Fund
  

USD 9.31  0.05  0.53%   

JRLFX Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast John Hancock historical stock prices and determine the direction of John Hancock Funds's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of John Hancock historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of John Hancock to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in John Hancock cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the John Hancock's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets John Hancock's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for John Hancock is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of John Hancock Funds value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

John Hancock Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of John Hancock Funds on the next trading day is expected to be 9.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.006532, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JRLFX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that John Hancock's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

John Hancock Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest John HancockJohn Hancock Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

John Hancock Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting John Hancock's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. John Hancock's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.59 and 10.04, respectively. We have considered John Hancock's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 9.31
9.31
Expected Value
10.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of John Hancock mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent John Hancock mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.0794
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0665
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0069
SAESum of the absolute errors4.058
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of John Hancock Funds. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict John Hancock. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for John Hancock

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Hancock Funds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of John Hancock's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of John Hancock in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.589.3110.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.649.3710.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as John Hancock. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against John Hancock's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, John Hancock's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in John Hancock Funds.

Other Forecasting Options for John Hancock

For every potential investor in JRLFX, whether a beginner or expert, John Hancock's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JRLFX Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JRLFX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying John Hancock's price trends.

John Hancock Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with John Hancock mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of John Hancock could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing John Hancock by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alcoa CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

John Hancock Funds Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of John Hancock's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of John Hancock's current price.

John Hancock Risk Indicators

The analysis of John Hancock's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in John Hancock's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting John Hancock stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards John Hancock in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, John Hancock's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from John Hancock options trading.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of John Hancock to cross-verify your projections. Note that the John Hancock Funds information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other John Hancock's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

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When running John Hancock Funds price analysis, check to measure John Hancock's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy John Hancock is operating at the current time. Most of John Hancock's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of John Hancock's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move John Hancock's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of John Hancock to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between John Hancock's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine John Hancock value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, John Hancock's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.