JP Morgan Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

JPM
 Stock
  

USD 110.39  2.38  2.11%   

JP Morgan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast JP Morgan historical stock prices and determine the direction of JP Morgan Chase's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of JP Morgan historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of JP Morgan to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-07 JP Morgan Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast JP Morgan's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest JP Morgan's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies JP Morgan stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current JP Morgan's open interest, investors have to compare it to JP Morgan's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of JP Morgan is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in JP Morgan. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in JP Morgan cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the JP Morgan's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets JP Morgan's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for JP Morgan is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of JP Morgan Chase value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

JP Morgan Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JP Morgan Chase on the next trading day is expected to be 109.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.39, mean absolute percentage error of 8.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 145.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JP Morgan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JP Morgan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JP Morgan Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest JP MorganJP Morgan Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

JP Morgan Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JP Morgan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JP Morgan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 107.91 and 111.52, respectively. We have considered JP Morgan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 110.39
107.91
Downside
109.72
Expected Value
111.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JP Morgan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JP Morgan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.1913
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.3899
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0208
SAESum of the absolute errors145.7855
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of JP Morgan Chase. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict JP Morgan. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for JP Morgan

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JP Morgan Chase. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of JP Morgan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of JP Morgan in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
108.60110.39112.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
99.35128.62130.41
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
135.00181.47210.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JP Morgan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JP Morgan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JP Morgan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in JP Morgan Chase.

Other Forecasting Options for JP Morgan

For every potential investor in JP Morgan, whether a beginner or expert, JP Morgan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JP Morgan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JP Morgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JP Morgan's price trends.

JP Morgan Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JP Morgan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JP Morgan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JP Morgan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

JP Morgan Chase Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JP Morgan's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JP Morgan's current price.

JP Morgan Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JP Morgan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JP Morgan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JP Morgan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JP Morgan Chase entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JP Morgan Risk Indicators

The analysis of JP Morgan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JP Morgan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting JP Morgan stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

JP Morgan Implied Volatility

    
  62.72  
JP Morgan's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of JP Morgan Chase stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if JP Morgan's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that JP Morgan stock will not fluctuate a lot when JP Morgan's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JP Morgan in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JP Morgan's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JP Morgan options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as JP Morgan Chase using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of JP Morgan to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running JP Morgan Chase price analysis, check to measure JP Morgan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JP Morgan is operating at the current time. Most of JP Morgan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JP Morgan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JP Morgan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JP Morgan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Go
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Go
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Is JP Morgan's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JP Morgan. If investors know JP Morgan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JP Morgan listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of JP Morgan Chase is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JP Morgan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JP Morgan's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JP Morgan's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JP Morgan's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JP Morgan's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JP Morgan's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine JP Morgan value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JP Morgan's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.