Jd Inc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

JD
 Stock
  

USD 52.31  1.16  2.17%   

Jd Inc Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jd Inc historical stock prices and determine the direction of Jd Inc ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Jd Inc historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jd Inc to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-09-30 Jd Inc Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Jd Inc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Jd Inc's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Jd Inc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Jd Inc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Jd Inc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Jd Inc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Jd Inc. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Jd Inc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jd Inc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jd Inc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Jd Inc is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Jd Inc ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Jd Inc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jd Inc ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 47.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.74, mean absolute percentage error of 4.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jd Inc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jd Inc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jd Inc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Jd IncJd Inc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Jd Inc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jd Inc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jd Inc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.40 and 49.85, respectively. We have considered Jd Inc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 52.31
47.13
Expected Value
49.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jd Inc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jd Inc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6219
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7415
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0292
SAESum of the absolute errors106.2308
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Jd Inc ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Jd Inc. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Jd Inc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jd Inc ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jd Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Jd Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
50.4553.1855.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
47.0862.9165.64
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
62.0099.92122.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jd Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jd Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jd Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Jd Inc ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Jd Inc

For every potential investor in Jd Inc, whether a beginner or expert, Jd Inc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jd Inc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jd Inc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jd Inc's price trends.

Jd Inc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jd Inc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jd Inc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jd Inc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
BUSHVELD MINERALS LTDAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jd Inc ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jd Inc's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jd Inc's current price.

Jd Inc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jd Inc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jd Inc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jd Inc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jd Inc ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jd Inc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jd Inc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jd Inc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Jd Inc stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Jd Inc without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jd Inc to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Jd Inc ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jd Inc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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When running Jd Inc ADR price analysis, check to measure Jd Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jd Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Jd Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jd Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jd Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jd Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Jd Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jd Inc. If investors know Jd Inc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jd Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Jd Inc ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jd Inc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jd Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jd Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jd Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jd Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jd Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Jd Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jd Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.