Intra-Cellular Ther Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

ITCI
 Stock
  

USD 52.85  0.69  1.32%   

Intra-Cellular Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Intra-Cellular Ther historical stock prices and determine the direction of Intra-Cellular Ther's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Intra-Cellular Ther historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Intra-Cellular Ther naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Intra-Cellular Ther systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Intra-Cellular Ther fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Intra-Cellular Ther to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current PPandE Turnover is estimated to increase to 47.73. The current Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated to increase to 12.74. The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to increase to about 87.7 M. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 87.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Intra-Cellular Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Intra-Cellular Ther's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Intra-Cellular Ther's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Intra-Cellular Ther stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Intra-Cellular Ther's open interest, investors have to compare it to Intra-Cellular Ther's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Intra-Cellular Ther is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Intra-Cellular. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Intra-Cellular Ther cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Intra-Cellular Ther's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Intra-Cellular Ther's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Intra-Cellular Ther is based on an artificially constructed time series of Intra-Cellular Ther daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Intra-Cellular Ther 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Intra-Cellular Ther on the next trading day is expected to be 51.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86, mean absolute percentage error of 6.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intra-Cellular Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intra-Cellular Ther's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Intra-Cellular Ther Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Intra-Cellular TherIntra-Cellular Ther Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Intra-Cellular Ther Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Intra-Cellular Ther's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Intra-Cellular Ther's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.94 and 55.04, respectively. We have considered Intra-Cellular Ther's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 52.85
51.99
Expected Value
55.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intra-Cellular Ther stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intra-Cellular Ther stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.2298
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0398
MADMean absolute deviation1.8603
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0388
SAESum of the absolute errors98.5975
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Intra-Cellular Ther 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Intra-Cellular Ther

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intra-Cellular Ther. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intra-Cellular Ther's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Intra-Cellular Ther in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
49.0552.1255.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
48.4451.5154.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
48.1451.0153.88
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0060.0085.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Intra-Cellular Ther. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Intra-Cellular Ther's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Intra-Cellular Ther's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Intra-Cellular Ther.

Other Forecasting Options for Intra-Cellular Ther

For every potential investor in Intra-Cellular, whether a beginner or expert, Intra-Cellular Ther's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Intra-Cellular Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Intra-Cellular. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Intra-Cellular Ther's price trends.

Intra-Cellular Ther Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Intra-Cellular Ther stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Intra-Cellular Ther could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Intra-Cellular Ther by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Bright Lights AcquisitionAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Intra-Cellular Ther Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Intra-Cellular Ther's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Intra-Cellular Ther's current price.

Intra-Cellular Ther Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Intra-Cellular Ther stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Intra-Cellular Ther shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Intra-Cellular Ther stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Intra-Cellular Ther entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Intra-Cellular Ther Risk Indicators

The analysis of Intra-Cellular Ther's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Intra-Cellular Ther's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Intra-Cellular Ther stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Intra-Cellular Ther Investors Sentiment

The influence of Intra-Cellular Ther's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Intra-Cellular. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Intra-Cellular Ther's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Intra-Cellular. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Intra-Cellular can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Intra-Cellular Ther. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Intra-Cellular Ther's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Intra-Cellular Ther's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Intra-Cellular Ther's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Intra-Cellular Ther.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Intra-Cellular Ther in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Intra-Cellular Ther's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Intra-Cellular Ther options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Intra-Cellular Ther using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Intra-Cellular Ther to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Intra-Cellular Ther information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Intra-Cellular Ther's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for Intra-Cellular Stock analysis

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Is Intra-Cellular Ther's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Intra-Cellular Ther. If investors know Intra-Cellular will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Intra-Cellular Ther listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
4.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
2.24
Return On Assets
(0.28) 
Return On Equity
(0.51) 
The market value of Intra-Cellular Ther is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Intra-Cellular that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Intra-Cellular Ther's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Intra-Cellular Ther's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Intra-Cellular Ther's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Intra-Cellular Ther's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Intra-Cellular Ther's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Intra-Cellular Ther value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Intra-Cellular Ther's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.