Ingersoll Rand Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IR
 Stock
  

USD 53.50  0.10  0.19%   

Ingersoll Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ingersoll Rand historical stock prices and determine the direction of Ingersoll Rand's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ingersoll Rand historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ingersoll Rand naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ingersoll Rand systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ingersoll Rand fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingersoll Rand to cross-verify your projections.
  
Ingersoll Rand Accounts Payable Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Ingersoll Rand reported last year Accounts Payable Turnover of 7.68. As of 08/16/2022, Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to grow to 7.61, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 5.06. . As of 08/16/2022, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 454.5 M, while Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 370.3 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Ingersoll Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ingersoll Rand's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Ingersoll Rand's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Ingersoll Rand stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ingersoll Rand's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ingersoll Rand's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ingersoll Rand is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ingersoll. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Ingersoll Rand cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ingersoll Rand's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ingersoll Rand's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Ingersoll Rand is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ingersoll Rand value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ingersoll Rand Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ingersoll Rand on the next trading day is expected to be 53.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ingersoll Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ingersoll Rand's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ingersoll Rand Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ingersoll RandIngersoll Rand Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ingersoll Rand Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ingersoll Rand's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ingersoll Rand's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.35 and 56.05, respectively. We have considered Ingersoll Rand's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 53.50
53.70
Expected Value
56.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ingersoll Rand stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ingersoll Rand stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5851
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.034
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0229
SAESum of the absolute errors63.0743
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ingersoll Rand. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ingersoll Rand. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ingersoll Rand

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ingersoll Rand. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ingersoll Rand's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ingersoll Rand in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
51.1653.5255.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
48.1561.4363.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
37.1745.1253.08
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
54.0063.7374.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ingersoll Rand. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ingersoll Rand's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ingersoll Rand's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ingersoll Rand.

Other Forecasting Options for Ingersoll Rand

For every potential investor in Ingersoll, whether a beginner or expert, Ingersoll Rand's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ingersoll Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ingersoll. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ingersoll Rand's price trends.

Ingersoll Rand Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ingersoll Rand stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ingersoll Rand could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ingersoll Rand by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Roper IndustriesAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INCMaiden Holdings NorthVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ingersoll Rand Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ingersoll Rand's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ingersoll Rand's current price.

Ingersoll Rand Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ingersoll Rand stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ingersoll Rand shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ingersoll Rand stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ingersoll Rand entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ingersoll Rand Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ingersoll Rand's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ingersoll Rand's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Ingersoll Rand stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Ingersoll Rand Investors Sentiment

The influence of Ingersoll Rand's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Ingersoll. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Ingersoll Rand's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Ingersoll. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ingersoll can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ingersoll Rand. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Ingersoll Rand's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Ingersoll Rand's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Ingersoll Rand's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Ingersoll Rand.

Ingersoll Rand Implied Volatility

    
  82.69  
Ingersoll Rand's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ingersoll Rand stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ingersoll Rand's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ingersoll Rand stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ingersoll Rand's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ingersoll Rand in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ingersoll Rand's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ingersoll Rand options trading.

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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Ingersoll Rand using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingersoll Rand to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Ingersoll Rand information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ingersoll Rand's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Ingersoll Stock analysis

When running Ingersoll Rand price analysis, check to measure Ingersoll Rand's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ingersoll Rand is operating at the current time. Most of Ingersoll Rand's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ingersoll Rand's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ingersoll Rand's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ingersoll Rand to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ingersoll Rand's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ingersoll Rand. If investors know Ingersoll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ingersoll Rand listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.39
Market Capitalization
21.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.13
Return On Assets
0.0299
Return On Equity
0.0592
The market value of Ingersoll Rand is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ingersoll that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ingersoll Rand's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ingersoll Rand's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ingersoll Rand's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ingersoll Rand's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ingersoll Rand's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ingersoll Rand value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ingersoll Rand's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.