Imedia Brands Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

IMBI
 Stock
  

USD 1.73  0.03  1.76%   

Imedia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Imedia Brands historical stock prices and determine the direction of Imedia Brands's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Imedia Brands historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Imedia Brands naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Imedia Brands systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Imedia Brands fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Imedia Brands to cross-verify your projections.
  
Imedia Brands Accounts Payable Turnover is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 6.62. The current Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated to increase to 17.34, while Receivables Turnover is projected to decrease to 7.37. . The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to decrease to about 13 M. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to decrease to about 13 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Imedia Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Imedia Brands' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Imedia Brands' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Imedia Brands stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Imedia Brands' open interest, investors have to compare it to Imedia Brands' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Imedia Brands is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Imedia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Imedia Brands cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Imedia Brands' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Imedia Brands' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Imedia Brands works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Imedia Brands Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Imedia Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 1.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.008385, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.18.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Imedia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Imedia Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Imedia Brands Stock Forecast Pattern

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Imedia Brands Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Imedia Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Imedia Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0173 and 8.14, respectively. We have considered Imedia Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.73
0.0173
Downside
1.76
Expected Value
8.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Imedia Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Imedia Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0034
MADMean absolute deviation0.0708
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.049
SAESum of the absolute errors4.1765
When Imedia Brands prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Imedia Brands trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Imedia Brands observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Imedia Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Imedia Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Imedia Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Imedia Brands in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.091.738.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.456.8413.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.261.471.68
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
22.0022.5023.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Imedia Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Imedia Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Imedia Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Imedia Brands.

Other Forecasting Options for Imedia Brands

For every potential investor in Imedia, whether a beginner or expert, Imedia Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Imedia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Imedia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Imedia Brands' price trends.

Imedia Brands Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Imedia Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Imedia Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Imedia Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Intel CorpHome DepotCoca-ColaPfizer IncExxon Mobil CorpVerizon CommunicationsAmerican ExpressCaterpillarCisco SystemsAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Imedia Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Imedia Brands' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Imedia Brands' current price.

Imedia Brands Risk Indicators

The analysis of Imedia Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Imedia Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Imedia Brands stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Imedia Brands Implied Volatility

    
  313.23  
Imedia Brands' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Imedia Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Imedia Brands' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Imedia Brands stock will not fluctuate a lot when Imedia Brands' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Imedia Brands in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Imedia Brands' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Imedia Brands options trading.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Imedia Brands to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Imedia Brands information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Imedia Brands' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Imedia Stock analysis

When running Imedia Brands price analysis, check to measure Imedia Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Imedia Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Imedia Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Imedia Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Imedia Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Imedia Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Imedia Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Imedia Brands. If investors know Imedia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Imedia Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
39 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.37
Return On Assets
-0.0213
Return On Equity
-0.62
The market value of Imedia Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Imedia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Imedia Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Imedia Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Imedia Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Imedia Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Imedia Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Imedia Brands value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Imedia Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.