International Business Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

IBM
 Stock
  

USD 148.37  0.38  0.26%   

International Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast International Business historical stock prices and determine the direction of International Business Machines's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of International Business historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although International Business naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of International Business Machines systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of International Business fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Business to cross-verify your projections.
  
International Business Cash and Equivalents Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Cash and Equivalents Turnover is estimated at 7.84. Asset Turnover is expected to hike to 0.61 this year, although the value of Accounts Payable Turnover will most likely fall to 12.31. . International Business Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 1.06 Billion. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 1.1 B this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (1.7 B).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-02 International Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast International Business' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest International Business' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies International Business stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current International Business' open interest, investors have to compare it to International Business' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of International Business is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in International. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in International Business cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the International Business' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets International Business' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
International Business polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for International Business Machines as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

International Business Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of International Business Machines on the next trading day is expected to be 152.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.38, mean absolute percentage error of 8.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 145.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict International Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that International Business' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

International Business Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest International BusinessInternational Business Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

International Business Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting International Business' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. International Business' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 151.10 and 154.14, respectively. We have considered International Business' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 148.37
151.10
Downside
152.62
Expected Value
154.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of International Business stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent International Business stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.2588
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.3812
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0188
SAESum of the absolute errors145.2538
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the International Business historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for International Business

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Business. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of International Business' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of International Business in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
146.90148.42149.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
133.53155.56157.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
138.41144.25150.30
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
124.00148.11170.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as International Business. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against International Business' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, International Business' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in International Business.

Other Forecasting Options for International Business

For every potential investor in International, whether a beginner or expert, International Business' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. International Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in International. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying International Business' price trends.

International Business Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with International Business stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of International Business could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing International Business by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Akamai TechnologiesBaidu Inc ADRBaozun Inc ADRSalesforceF5 IncAlphabet Cl CHewlett Packard EnteIac IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth Trd
 Risk & Return  Correlation

International Business Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of International Business' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of International Business' current price.

International Business Risk Indicators

The analysis of International Business' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in International Business' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting International Business stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

International Business Investors Sentiment

The influence of International Business' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in International. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to International Business' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in International. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding International can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around International Business Machines. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
International Business' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for International Business' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average International Business' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on International Business.

International Business Implied Volatility

    
  24.48  
International Business' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of International Business Machines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if International Business' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that International Business stock will not fluctuate a lot when International Business' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards International Business in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, International Business' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from International Business options trading.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Business to cross-verify your projections. Note that the International Business information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other International Business' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for International Stock analysis

When running International Business price analysis, check to measure International Business' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy International Business is operating at the current time. Most of International Business' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of International Business' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move International Business' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of International Business to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is International Business' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of International Business. If investors know International will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about International Business listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.041
Market Capitalization
133 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.065
Return On Assets
0.0322
Return On Equity
0.0648
The market value of International Business is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of International that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of International Business' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is International Business' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because International Business' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect International Business' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between International Business' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine International Business value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, International Business' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.