Hershey Foods Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HSY
 Stock
  

USD 218.91  0.49  0.22%   

Hershey Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hershey Foods historical stock prices and determine the direction of Hershey Foods Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Hershey Foods historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hershey Foods naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Hershey Foods Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hershey Foods fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hershey Foods to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Hershey Foods PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Hershey Foods reported PPandE Turnover of 3.68 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 15.37 in 2022, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to drop 10.33 in 2022. . Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 233.2 M in 2022, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 199 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-01 Hershey Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hershey Foods' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Hershey Foods' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Hershey Foods stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hershey Foods' open interest, investors have to compare it to Hershey Foods' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hershey Foods is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hershey. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hershey Foods cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hershey Foods' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hershey Foods' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hershey Foods is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hershey Foods Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hershey Foods Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hershey Foods Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 224.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.94, mean absolute percentage error of 15.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 179.13. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hershey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hershey Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hershey Foods Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hershey FoodsHershey Foods Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hershey Foods Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hershey Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hershey Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 222.46 and 225.87, respectively. We have considered Hershey Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 218.91
222.46
Downside
224.17
Expected Value
225.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hershey Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hershey Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.8448
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.9365
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0136
SAESum of the absolute errors179.1254
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hershey Foods Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hershey Foods. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hershey Foods

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hershey Foods Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hershey Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hershey Foods in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
217.20218.89220.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
197.02224.89226.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
202.55212.02221.50
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
181.00193.50220.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hershey Foods. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hershey Foods' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hershey Foods' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hershey Foods Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Hershey Foods

For every potential investor in Hershey, whether a beginner or expert, Hershey Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hershey Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hershey. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hershey Foods' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hershey Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hershey Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hershey Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Hershey Foods Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hershey Foods' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hershey Foods' current price.

Hershey Foods Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hershey Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hershey Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hershey Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hershey Foods Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hershey Foods Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hershey Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hershey Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Hershey Foods stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Hershey Foods Investors Sentiment

The influence of Hershey Foods' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hershey. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Hershey Foods Implied Volatility

    
  26.88  
Hershey Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hershey Foods Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hershey Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hershey Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hershey Foods' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hershey Foods in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hershey Foods' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hershey Foods options trading.

Current Sentiment - HSY

Hershey Foods Corp Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Hershey Foods Corp. What is your judgment towards investing in Hershey Foods Corp? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hershey Foods to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Hershey Foods Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hershey Foods' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

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When running Hershey Foods Corp price analysis, check to measure Hershey Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hershey Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Hershey Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hershey Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hershey Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hershey Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hershey Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hershey Foods. If investors know Hershey will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hershey Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Hershey Foods Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hershey that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hershey Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hershey Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hershey Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hershey Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hershey Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hershey Foods value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hershey Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.