Healthequity Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HQY
 Stock
  

USD 60.09  2.75  4.80%   

Healthequity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Healthequity historical stock prices and determine the direction of Healthequity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Healthequity historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Healthequity naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Healthequity systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Healthequity fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Healthequity to cross-verify your projections.
  
Healthequity PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Healthequity reported PPandE Turnover of 28.83 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 11.50 in 2022, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 2.69 in 2022. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to rise to about 503.2 M in 2022, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 72.9 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Healthequity Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Healthequity's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Healthequity's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Healthequity stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Healthequity's open interest, investors have to compare it to Healthequity's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Healthequity is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Healthequity. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Healthequity cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Healthequity's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Healthequity's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Healthequity is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Healthequity value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Healthequity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Healthequity on the next trading day is expected to be 60.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25, mean absolute percentage error of 2.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Healthequity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Healthequity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Healthequity Stock Forecast Pattern

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Healthequity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Healthequity's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Healthequity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.74 and 63.10, respectively. We have considered Healthequity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 60.09
60.42
Expected Value
63.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Healthequity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Healthequity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.135
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2532
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0203
SAESum of the absolute errors76.4448
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Healthequity. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Healthequity. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Healthequity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Healthequity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Healthequity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Healthequity in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
57.3760.0562.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
54.0862.8965.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
56.5958.6260.65
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
52.0064.8086.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Healthequity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Healthequity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Healthequity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Healthequity.

Other Forecasting Options for Healthequity

For every potential investor in Healthequity, whether a beginner or expert, Healthequity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Healthequity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Healthequity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Healthequity's price trends.

Healthequity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Healthequity stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Healthequity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Healthequity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Starbucks CorpJP Morgan ChaseBank Of America3M CompanyJohnson JohnsonBoeing CompanyInternational BusinessAlcoa CorpCoca-ColaAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Healthequity Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Healthequity's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Healthequity's current price.

Healthequity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Healthequity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Healthequity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Healthequity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Healthequity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Healthequity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Healthequity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Healthequity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Healthequity stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Healthequity without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Healthequity to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Healthequity information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Healthequity's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try ETF Directory module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.

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When running Healthequity price analysis, check to measure Healthequity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Healthequity is operating at the current time. Most of Healthequity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Healthequity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Healthequity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Healthequity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Healthequity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Healthequity. If investors know Healthequity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Healthequity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.96
Market Capitalization
5.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.12
Return On Assets
0.0059
Return On Equity
-0.0299
The market value of Healthequity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Healthequity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Healthequity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Healthequity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Healthequity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Healthequity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Healthequity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Healthequity value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Healthequity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.