Harley Davidson Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

HOG
 Stock
  

USD 31.99  0.33  1.04%   

Harley Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Harley Davidson historical stock prices and determine the direction of Harley-Davidson's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Harley Davidson historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Harley Davidson naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Harley-Davidson systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Harley Davidson fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harley Davidson to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Harley Davidson Inventory Turnover is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Inventory Turnover was at 5.60. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 21.43, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 3.21. . Harley Davidson Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 154.98 Million.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-08 Harley Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Harley Davidson's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Harley Davidson's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Harley Davidson stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Harley Davidson's open interest, investors have to compare it to Harley Davidson's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Harley Davidson is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Harley. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Harley Davidson cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Harley Davidson's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Harley Davidson's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Harley Davidson polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Harley-Davidson as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Harley-Davidson Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Harley Davidson's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Harley. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Harley can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Harley-Davidson. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Harley Davidson's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Harley Davidson's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Harley Davidson's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Harley Davidson.

Harley Davidson Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Harley-Davidson on the next trading day is expected to be 32.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.55. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harley Davidson's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Harley Davidson Stock Forecast Pattern

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Harley Davidson Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Harley Davidson's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harley Davidson's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.35 and 35.70, respectively. We have considered Harley Davidson's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 31.99
32.02
Expected Value
35.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harley Davidson stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harley Davidson stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8985
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1237
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0321
SAESum of the absolute errors68.5469
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Harley Davidson historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Harley Davidson

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harley-Davidson. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harley Davidson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Harley Davidson in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
28.4532.1335.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
28.7936.8640.54
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
29.4234.5239.62
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
38.0046.8670.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harley Davidson. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harley Davidson's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harley Davidson's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Harley-Davidson.

Other Forecasting Options for Harley Davidson

For every potential investor in Harley, whether a beginner or expert, Harley Davidson's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harley Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harley Davidson's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harley Davidson stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harley Davidson could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harley Davidson by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Harley-Davidson Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Harley Davidson's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Harley Davidson's current price.

Harley Davidson Risk Indicators

The analysis of Harley Davidson's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harley Davidson's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Harley Davidson stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Harley Davidson without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harley Davidson to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Harley-Davidson information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Harley Davidson's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Harley-Davidson price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Harley Davidson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harley Davidson. If investors know Harley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harley Davidson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.14
Market Capitalization
4.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.051
Return On Assets
0.0445
Return On Equity
0.27
The market value of Harley-Davidson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harley Davidson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harley Davidson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harley Davidson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harley Davidson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harley Davidson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Harley Davidson value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harley Davidson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.