Helen Of Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HELE
 Stock
  

USD 98.21  2.10  2.19%   

Helen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Helen Of historical stock prices and determine the direction of Helen Of Troy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Helen Of historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Helen Of to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Helen Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Helen Of's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Helen Of's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Helen Of stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Helen Of's open interest, investors have to compare it to Helen Of's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Helen Of is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Helen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Helen Of cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Helen Of's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Helen Of's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Helen Of is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Helen Of Troy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Helen Of Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Helen Of Troy on the next trading day is expected to be 93.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.90, mean absolute percentage error of 12.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 177.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Helen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Helen Of's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Helen Of Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Helen OfHelen Of Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Helen Of Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Helen Of's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Helen Of's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 90.15 and 97.10, respectively. We have considered Helen Of's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 98.21
93.62
Expected Value
97.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Helen Of stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Helen Of stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6518
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.904
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0296
SAESum of the absolute errors177.1469
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Helen Of Troy. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Helen Of. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Helen Of

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Helen Of Troy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Helen Of's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Helen Of in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
95.3698.84102.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
88.39140.55144.03
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
255.00268.50282.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
10.3310.4010.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Helen Of. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Helen Of's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Helen Of's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Helen Of Troy.

Other Forecasting Options for Helen Of

For every potential investor in Helen, whether a beginner or expert, Helen Of's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Helen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Helen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Helen Of's price trends.

Helen Of Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Helen Of stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Helen Of could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Helen Of by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Procter GambleEstee Lauder CompaniesColgate-PalmoliveLasertec CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt Bond
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Helen Of Troy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Helen Of's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Helen Of's current price.

Helen Of Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Helen Of stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Helen Of shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Helen Of stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Helen Of Troy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Helen Of Risk Indicators

The analysis of Helen Of's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Helen Of's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Helen Of stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Helen Of Investors Sentiment

The influence of Helen Of's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Helen. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Helen Of's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Helen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Helen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Helen Of Troy. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Helen Of's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Helen Of's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Helen Of's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Helen Of.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Helen Of in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Helen Of's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Helen Of options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Helen Of Troy using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Helen Of to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Helen Of Troy price analysis, check to measure Helen Of's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Helen Of is operating at the current time. Most of Helen Of's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Helen Of's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Helen Of's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Helen Of to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Helen Of's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Helen Of. If investors know Helen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Helen Of listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.39) 
Market Capitalization
2.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.097
Return On Assets
0.052
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of Helen Of Troy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Helen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Helen Of's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Helen Of's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Helen Of's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Helen Of's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Helen Of's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Helen Of value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Helen Of's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.