Hdfc Bank Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

HDB
 Stock
  

USD 56.84  0.97  1.68%   

Hdfc Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hdfc Bank historical stock prices and determine the direction of Hdfc Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Hdfc Bank historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hdfc Bank naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Hdfc Bank systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hdfc Bank fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hdfc Bank to cross-verify your projections.
  
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The current year Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.043. The current year Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to grow to about 20.8 B, whereas Weighted Average Shares is forecasted to decline to about 6.2 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-15 Hdfc Bank Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hdfc Bank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Hdfc Bank's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Hdfc Bank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hdfc Bank's open interest, investors have to compare it to Hdfc Bank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hdfc Bank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hdfc Bank. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hdfc Bank cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hdfc Bank's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hdfc Bank's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Hdfc Bank - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Hdfc Bank prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Hdfc Bank price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Hdfc Bank.

Hdfc Bank Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Hdfc Bank's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Hdfc Bank. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hdfc Bank can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hdfc Bank. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hdfc Bank's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hdfc Bank's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hdfc Bank's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hdfc Bank.

Hdfc Bank Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hdfc Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 56.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.98. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hdfc Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hdfc Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hdfc Bank Stock Forecast Pattern

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Hdfc Bank Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hdfc Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hdfc Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.34 and 59.54, respectively. We have considered Hdfc Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 56.84
56.94
Expected Value
59.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hdfc Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hdfc Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1644
MADMean absolute deviation1.1183
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0198
SAESum of the absolute errors65.98
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Hdfc Bank observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Hdfc Bank observations.

Predictive Modules for Hdfc Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hdfc Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hdfc Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hdfc Bank in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
54.1756.7459.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
51.1665.8668.43
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
52.8455.0557.27
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
90.0092.1094.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hdfc Bank. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hdfc Bank's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hdfc Bank's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hdfc Bank.

Other Forecasting Options for Hdfc Bank

For every potential investor in Hdfc Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Hdfc Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hdfc Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hdfc Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hdfc Bank's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hdfc Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hdfc Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hdfc Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Hdfc Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hdfc Bank's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hdfc Bank's current price.

Hdfc Bank Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hdfc Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hdfc Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hdfc Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hdfc Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hdfc Bank Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hdfc Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hdfc Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Hdfc Bank stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Hdfc Bank without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hdfc Bank to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Hdfc Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hdfc Bank's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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When running Hdfc Bank price analysis, check to measure Hdfc Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hdfc Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Hdfc Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hdfc Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hdfc Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hdfc Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hdfc Bank's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hdfc Bank. If investors know Hdfc Bank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hdfc Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.23
Market Capitalization
107 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.17
Return On Assets
0.0195
Return On Equity
0.17
The market value of Hdfc Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hdfc Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hdfc Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hdfc Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hdfc Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hdfc Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hdfc Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hdfc Bank value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hdfc Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.