Home Depot Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

HD
 Stock
  

USD 305.21  6.76  2.17%   

Home Depot Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Home Depot historical stock prices and determine the direction of Home Depot's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Home Depot historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Home Depot naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Home Depot systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Depot fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.
  
Home Depot Receivables Turnover is projected to drop based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 47.23. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 5.68, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is forecasted to decline to 29.49. . Home Depot Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 1.06 Billion.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-12 Home Depot Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Home Depot's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Home Depot's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Home Depot stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Home Depot's open interest, investors have to compare it to Home Depot's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Home Depot is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Home Depot. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Home Depot cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Home Depot's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Home Depot's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Home Depot - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Home Depot prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Home Depot price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Home Depot.

Home Depot Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 306.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.84, mean absolute percentage error of 28.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 226.64.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Home Depot Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Home Depot's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Home Depot Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Home DepotHome Depot Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Home Depot Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Home Depot's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Home Depot's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 304.95 and 308.33, respectively. We have considered Home Depot's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 305.21
304.95
Downside
306.64
Expected Value
308.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Home Depot stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Home Depot stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.65
MADMean absolute deviation3.8413
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0132
SAESum of the absolute errors226.6379
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Home Depot observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Home Depot observations.

Predictive Modules for Home Depot

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Depot. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Depot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Home Depot in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
304.75306.44308.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
274.69328.40330.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
267.39292.35317.31
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
315.00409.58470.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Home Depot. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Home Depot's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Home Depot's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Home Depot.

Other Forecasting Options for Home Depot

For every potential investor in Home Depot, whether a beginner or expert, Home Depot's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Home Depot Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Home Depot. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Home Depot's price trends.

Home Depot Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Home Depot stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Home Depot could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home Depot by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Big LotsHP IncCVS CorpBuild-A-Bear WorkshopChevron CorpLa-Z-BoyBed Bath BeyondGeneral ElectricAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Home Depot Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Home Depot's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Home Depot's current price.

Home Depot Risk Indicators

The analysis of Home Depot's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Home Depot's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Home Depot stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Home Depot Investors Sentiment

The influence of Home Depot's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Home Depot. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Home Depot's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Home Depot. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Home Depot can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Home Depot. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Home Depot's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Home Depot's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Home Depot's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Home Depot.

Home Depot Implied Volatility

    
  32.43  
Home Depot's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Home Depot stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Home Depot's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Home Depot stock will not fluctuate a lot when Home Depot's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Home Depot in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Home Depot's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Home Depot options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Home Depot using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Home Depot information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Home Depot's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Home Depot price analysis, check to measure Home Depot's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home Depot is operating at the current time. Most of Home Depot's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home Depot's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home Depot's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home Depot to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Home Depot's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Depot. If investors know Home Depot will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Depot listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.06
Market Capitalization
320.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.038
Return On Assets
0.2
Return On Equity
0.85
The market value of Home Depot is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home Depot that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Depot's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Depot's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Depot's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Depot's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Depot's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Home Depot value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Depot's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.