Home Depot Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

HD
 Stock
  

USD 314.89  4.20  1.35%   

Home Depot Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Home Depot historical stock prices and determine the direction of Home Depot's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Home Depot historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Home Depot naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Home Depot systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Depot fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections.
  
Home Depot Receivables Turnover is projected to drop based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 47.23. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 5.68, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is forecasted to decline to 29.49. . Home Depot Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 1.06 Billion.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Home Depot Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Home Depot's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Home Depot's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Home Depot stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Home Depot's open interest, investors have to compare it to Home Depot's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Home Depot is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Home Depot. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Home Depot cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Home Depot's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Home Depot's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Home Depot is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Home Depot Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Home Depot on the next trading day is expected to be 314.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.76, mean absolute percentage error of 40.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,222.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Home Depot Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Home Depot's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Home Depot Stock Forecast Pattern

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Home Depot Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Home Depot's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Home Depot's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 313.18 and 316.60, respectively. We have considered Home Depot's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 314.89
313.18
Downside
314.89
Expected Value
316.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Home Depot stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Home Depot stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria482.029
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0422
MADMean absolute deviation4.7551
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0145
SAESum of the absolute errors1222.065
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Home Depot price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Home Depot. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Home Depot

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Depot. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Depot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Home Depot in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
312.77314.43316.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
283.40322.87324.53
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
315.00409.58470.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (13)
LowProjected EPSHigh
15.0015.4715.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Home Depot. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Home Depot's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Home Depot's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Home Depot.

Other Forecasting Options for Home Depot

For every potential investor in Home Depot, whether a beginner or expert, Home Depot's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Home Depot Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Home Depot. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Home Depot's price trends.

Home Depot Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Home Depot stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Home Depot could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home Depot by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAlphabet Cl AMcDonalds CorpWalmartVerizon Communications3M CompanyMicrosoft CorpThe Travelers CompaniesMerck CompanyAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Home Depot Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Home Depot's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Home Depot's current price.

Home Depot Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Home Depot stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Home Depot shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Home Depot stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Home Depot entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Home Depot Risk Indicators

The analysis of Home Depot's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Home Depot's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Home Depot stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Home Depot Investors Sentiment

The influence of Home Depot's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Home Depot. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Home Depot's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Home Depot. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Home Depot can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Home Depot. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Home Depot's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Home Depot's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Home Depot's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Home Depot.

Home Depot Implied Volatility

    
  44.0  
Home Depot's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Home Depot stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Home Depot's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Home Depot stock will not fluctuate a lot when Home Depot's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Home Depot in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Home Depot's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Home Depot options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Depot to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Home Depot information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Home Depot's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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When running Home Depot price analysis, check to measure Home Depot's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home Depot is operating at the current time. Most of Home Depot's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home Depot's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home Depot's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home Depot to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Home Depot's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Depot. If investors know Home Depot will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Depot listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.06
Market Capitalization
323.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.038
Return On Assets
0.2
Return On Equity
0.85
The market value of Home Depot is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home Depot that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Depot's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Depot's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Depot's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Depot's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Depot's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Home Depot value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Depot's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.