Howard Bancorp Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

HBMD -  USA Stock  

USD 23.30  0.00  0.00%

Howard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Howard Bancorp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Howard Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Howard Bancorp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Howard Bancorp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Howard Bancorp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Howard Bancorp fundamentals over time.
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The current year PPandE Turnover is expected to grow to 2.24. The current year Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to grow to 1.05. Howard Bancorp Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 16.89 Million.
Most investors in Howard Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Howard Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Howard Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Howard Bancorp price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Howard Bancorp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Howard Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 0.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.69. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Howard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Howard Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Howard Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Howard Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Howard Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.0331
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8473
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0381
SAESum of the absolute errors51.6852
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Howard Bancorp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Howard Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Howard Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Howard Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Howard Bancorp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.3023.3023.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
21.7921.7925.63
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0024.0028.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.281.291.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Howard Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Howard Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Howard Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Howard Bancorp.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Howard Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Howard Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Howard Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Howard Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Howard Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Howard Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Howard Bancorp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Howard Bancorp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Howard Bancorp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Howard. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Howard Bancorp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Howard Bancorp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Howard Bancorp options trading.

Current Sentiment - HBMD

Howard Bancorp Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are indifferent in their judgment towards investing in Howard Bancorp. What is your judgment towards investing in Howard Bancorp? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Please check Risk vs Return Analysis. Note that the Howard Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Howard Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Other Tools for Howard Stock

When running Howard Bancorp price analysis, check to measure Howard Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Howard Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Howard Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Howard Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Howard Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Howard Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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